585B Kevin Ct Unit B · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$234,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 1977 Good condition 8,712 sqft lot Est $248k · 5% under $405/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Leisure Village West, one of Ocean County's premier active adult communities! This highly desirable Oxford model offers comfortable, low-maintenance living with 2 bedrooms, 2 updated full baths, an attached garage, and a versatile bonus room perfect for a home office, den, hobby room, or guest space. Major updates include roof replaced approximately 2 years ago, and the furnace and central air conditioning system replaced approximately 10 years ago. Ideally located within the community, this home enjoys a tranquil setting with a wooded area directly across the street, creating a private and scenic backdrop. Ample parking makes it easy for family and friends to visit. Residents of

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Ample parking
• Updated full baths

Tags

• UPDATED FULL BATHS
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• ROOF REPLACED
• AMPLE PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present; Monthly association fee of $405; HOA covers trash, common area, lawn maintenance, and snow removal; Community amenities include: community room, common access, pool, golf course, clubhouse, common area, landscaping, bocci

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Attached property; Model: Oxford
• Construction: Property attached (townhouse/attached unit)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the first floor)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Blinds/Shades; Ceiling fan(s); Bonus room; Living room; Dining room; Kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.89%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,932
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
567A Mayfair Rd	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+7%)	3mo	$230,000	$185	79
478A Buckingham Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,164 (0%)	3mo	$259,000	$223	75
638B Finchley Ct	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+7%)	3mo	$245,000	$197	74
655-A Pulham Ct	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+7%)	2mo	$225,000	$181	72
15 Normanton Ave	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,267 (+9%)	0mo	$330,000	$260	71
715C Wooton Ct	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+7%)	2mo	$284,000	$228	65
29 Oakham	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,267 (+9%)	3mo	$270,000	$213	65
945A Liverpool Cir Unit A	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+7%)	0mo	$248,500	$200	57
6D Gramercy Ln	0.51mi	2/1.5	1,050 (-10%)	2mo	$275,000	$262	56
71 N Buckingham Dr	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,267 (+9%)	3mo	$325,000	$257	55
4b Cambridge Cir	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,238 (+6%)	3mo	$210,000	$170	54
32C Yorkshire Ct	0.71mi	2/1.5	1,050 (-10%)	1mo	$190,000	$181	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-31,159
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-17,439
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,699 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,524/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$405
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,568

Max offer price $234,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $266	-5% $185	+0% $104	+5% $23	+10% $-58
Rent	-10% $-109	-5% $-3	+0% $104	+5% $210	+10% $317
Rate	-1.0pp $222	-0.5pp $164	base $104	+0.5pp $43	+1.0pp $-19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	45d	1	0.58mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	0d	6	0.94mi
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	45d	1	0.98mi
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	24d	1	1.03mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	0d	3	1.31mi
1033 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,700	$2.16	0d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $405 · $4,860/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $234,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $234,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$3,524
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,591
• − Management: −$2,591
• − HOA: −$4,860
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$2,344
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$562
• After-tax cash flow: $1,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Leisure Village West is in good condition with recent updates, including a new roof and HVAC system. It offers a comfortable, low-maintenance living space with a versatile bonus room and a tranquil setting.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Resale replace light fixtures — Upgrading light fixtures can improve the home's curb appeal and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale replace light fixtures — Upgrading light fixtures can improve the home's curb appeal and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $234,900 MOMLS