16518 Ithaca Pheasant Dr · Patton Village, TX 77357

$211,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $192/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Timbers Edge Community Association; Association fee $2,300 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Single-story living (first-floor rooms listed); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built by Lennar (new construction); Brick and cement siding exterior; Year built: 2026
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen integrated with family and dining areas; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 14); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each approx. 10 x 11) — total of 3 bedrooms possible
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Pantry; Separate shower; Kitchen and dining combined; Total of 6 rooms

🏗️ New construction. The $211,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $240,476.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $212k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#977 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Timber Lakes El (math 23% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 860 students, 63% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $203,844 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.34%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,476
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16229 Bergara Bend Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-5%)	0mo	$235,990	$163	86
16226 Bergara Bend Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-7%)	1mo	$243,990	$172	82
16218 Bergara Bend Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-7%)	1mo	$235,990	$167	81
16210 Bergara Bend Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+9%)	1mo	$256,990	$155	75
16225 Bergara Bend Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+9%)	1mo	$260,990	$158	75
16246 Bergara Bend Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-14%)	0mo	$231,990	$177	74
16206 Bergara Bend Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-14%)	1mo	$231,990	$177	74
21307 Pine Mill Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,591 (+4%)	2mo	$225,000	$141	70
16507 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	1mo	$271,990	$158	68
16514 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	1mo	$270,990	$158	68
15058 Paddock Point Ln	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,704 (+12%)	3mo	$224,900	$132	39
20938 Canary Wood Ln	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (+14%)	1mo	$219,900	$126	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-59,895
• Equity at exit: $35,856

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-93,126
• Equity at exit: $20,792

Cash invested: $67,333 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,038 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,261
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$301 /mo · $3,607/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,347

Max offer price $205,240

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,119
• Closing costs: $7,214
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	24d	1	0.64mi
14255 Timber Fields Way New Caney, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,622	$0.90	5d	57	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $211,990 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $211,990 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $213,190 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 618-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $213,190 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $213,190 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $213,190 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $213,190 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $213,190 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $213,190 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    remarks 579-char remark
12. 2026-06-04
    days on marketlisting id $213,190 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on marketlisting id $213,190 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $213,190 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $213,190 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $213,190 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $256,990 Active
18. 2026-05-21
    listed $256,990 Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,470
• − Property taxes: −$3,607
• − Insurance: −$1,202
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$6,996
• Taxable loss: −$7,032
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,688
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a spacious floor plan and is ready for a fresh paint job and landscaping improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Patton Village

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #977
• US rank: #17313

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $256,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $256,990 Zillow