13707 Brigadier Dr · Conroe, TX 77318

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1995 0.28 ac lot $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

TONS OF POTIENTIAL IN THIS 3/2 MANUFACTURED HOME LOCATED ON 3 LOTS IN THE VERY SOUGHT AFTER SHADOW BAY SUBDIVISION! FIX UP AND MAKE A PRIMARY RESIDENCE, OR TEAR IT DOWN AND HAVE THREE LOTS TO BUILD ON OR MOVE NEW MANUFACTURED HOMES IN ON! THE INTERIOR BOASTS SOLID SURFACE FLOORING THROUGHOUT, PLUS A LARGE LIVING AREA, AMAZING KITCHEN WITH TONS OF CABINETS, COZY BREAKFAST AREA, OVERSIZED UTILITY ROOM WITH WASHER & DRYER, SPLIT BEDROOM FLOORPLAN, COZY PRIMARY SUITE WITH WALK IN CLOSET, PRIMARY BATH WITH SEPARATE TUB & SHOWER, AND AMPLE SIZED SPARE BEDROOMS! THE OUTSIDE OFFERS A FANTASTIC COVERED DECK AREA, PLUS AN UNCOVERED DECK, THAT WOULD BE AN EXCELLENT ENTERTAINING AREA! AL

Key facts

• Large living area
• Manufactured home
• Three lots

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• THREE LOTS
• SOLID SURFACE FLOORING
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• TONS OF CABINETS
• COZY BREAKFAST AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Shadow Bay HOA with annual fee; Community amenities include boat ramp and park

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Asphalt road access; Electric service
• Home design: Residential property; Faces east
• Construction: Built in 1995; Block foundation; Composition roof; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Cleared lot; Subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen island; Laminate counters; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $771 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.44%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $21,781
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $57,944
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,643/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $771

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,186

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14156 Shadow Bay Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,195	$1.53	1d	1	0.22mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	43d	1	0.97mi
14210 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,850	$1.15	4d	1	0.97mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	4d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-17
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,643 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$734/yr (+$61/mo · 44.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,643
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,076
• − Management: −$2,076
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $7,670
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,841
• After-tax cash flow: $7,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $129,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,643 · -7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.