CROWNPOINT Plan · Aledo, TX 76008

$388,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,140 sqft · SingleFamily · 699 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Crownpoint plan is a one-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, offering approximately 2,140 square feet of living space. The front porch and foyer leads to an open-concept kitchen, dining area, and family room. The kitchen includes an island with beautiful quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, gas cooking range, and a walk-in corner pantry. Utilize every inch of space in this well thought out, maximizing wall space for furniture while including three windows to the backyard view. The spacious private main bedroom is located off the family room and features an attractive ensuite bathroom with luxury walk-in shower with seat, linen, and walk-in closets. The covered patio is located off the dining room. All secondary bedrooms and second full bathroom are located at the front of the house off the foyer. The separate utility room and mud bench are located just off the garage entry. Front elevations offer bay window, dormer, and stone detail options. Additional features include: Tankless Gas Water Heater; Revwood flooring at Entry, Hallways (per plan), Kitchen/Breakfast, Living Room, Utility, and Bathrooms; full yard sod, landscaping, and irrigation. This home includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package with an industry-leading suite of smart home products.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 699 days

🏗️ New construction. The $388,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $438,400.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $389k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-510 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $365k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $319k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.9% in Aledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#328 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Aledo ISD (rural): math 66% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #11 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mccall El (math 60% / reading 64%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 570 students, 15% FRL); Aledo Middle (math 69% / reading 72%, grade A, #57 of 1,662 statewide, top 3%, 944 students, 11% FRL); Aledo H S (math 87% / reading 50%, grade B, #147 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 1,622 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 1148 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 699 days — a 12% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $318,937 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 699 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.99%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $438,400
• List price: $388,990
• Delta: -11.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
144 Crimson Sky Ct	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,241 (+5%)	2mo	$380,000	$170	75
14944 Chipwood Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,006 (-6%)	1mo	$385,000	$192	75
14825 Brettridge Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,085 (-3%)	1mo	$389,999	$187	74
15129 Ram Rock Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,140 (0%)	2mo	$384,980	$180	68
14925 Belclaire Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,317 (+8%)	0mo	$434,900	$188	64
15060 Ted Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,998 (-7%)	1mo	$399,990	$200	62
15025 Ram Rock Dr	0.62mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,120 (-1%)	0mo	$384,990	$182	61
736 Soaring Hawk Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,035 (-5%)	0mo	$386,625	$190	57
15128 Green Bluff Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,939 (-9%)	2mo	$463,990	$239	54
15117 Green Bluff Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,998 (-7%)	0mo	$399,900	$200	53
15124 Green Bluff Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,998 (-7%)	2mo	$425,000	$213	52
15064 Green Bluff Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,860 (-13%)	2mo	$434,900	$234	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-100,826
• Equity at exit: $65,367

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-118,366
• Equity at exit: $37,905

Cash invested: $122,752 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 46 active · 56 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.5 mo (28%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $404,950 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 109 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76008

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,189 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,299
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$548 /mo · $6,576/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,835

Max offer price $364,590

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-207	-5% $-359	+0% $-510	+5% $-662	+10% $-813
Rent	-10% $-762	-5% $-636	+0% $-510	+5% $-384	+10% $-258
Rate	-1.0pp $-289	-0.5pp $-399	base $-510	+0.5pp $-624	+1.0pp $-739

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,600
• Closing costs: $13,152
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15049 Chipwood Dr Aledo, TX	3.0	3.0	2337	$3,500	$1.50	139d	1	0.05mi
105 Crimson Sky Ct Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	2204	$3,200	$1.45	51d	1	0.11mi
616 Ardath Dr Aledo, TX	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,850	$1.39	90d	1	0.20mi
616 Ardath Dr Aledo, TX	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,850	$1.39	108d	1	0.20mi
15229 Holly Bay Ct Aledo, TX	4.0	2.0	2055	$2,801	$1.36	68d	1	0.20mi
14953 Gentry Dr Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	2866	$3,300	$1.15	139d	1	0.25mi
228 Open Sky Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	2555	$3,395	$1.33	41d	1	0.26mi
701 Brody Trl Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	2639	$3,236	$1.23	4d	1	0.28mi
14824 Brettridge Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2782	$3,321	$1.19	139d	1	0.35mi
14848 Complacent Way Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	2121	$2,995	$1.41	74d	1	0.37mi
253 Gill Point Ln Aledo, TX	4.0	2.5	2858	$3,650	$1.28	100d	1	0.37mi
15013 Gladstone Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	2.5	2820	$3,046	$1.08	12d	1	0.40mi
144 Peace Pl Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2780	$3,395	$1.22	6d	1	0.43mi
816 Hollett Ct Aledo, TX	3.0	2.0	2329	$3,071	$1.32	4d	1	0.45mi
216 Missler Dr Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	2209	$3,000	$1.36	18d	1	0.48mi
15129 Ram Rock Dr Hudson Oaks, TX	4.0	2.0	2140	$3,500	$1.64	48d	1	0.70mi
2013 Tolleson Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2687	$3,495	$1.30	18d	1	1.18mi
2165 Sandlin Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2679	$3,825	$1.43	139d	1	1.24mi
14341 Overlook Park Dr Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	2749	$4,750	$1.73	57d	1	1.26mi
14437 Greymoore Cir Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	1806	$3,600	$1.99	70d	1	1.29mi
2240 Laurel Ridge Rd Aledo, TX	3.0	3.5	2758	$4,500	$1.63	29d	1	1.32mi
14428 Balmoral Pl Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	2366	$3,600	$1.52	69d	1	1.35mi
14409 Balmoral Pl Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	2334	$3,495	$1.50	4d	1	1.40mi
14228 Walsh Ave Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	1766	$3,500	$1.98	73d	1	1.42mi
5957 Stacy Ln Weatherford, TX	3.0	2.0	2382	$2,795	$1.17	60d	1	1.43mi
5957 Stacy Ln Weatherford, TX	3.0	2.0	2382	$2,795	$1.17	63d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $388,990 Active 699 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $388,990 Active 698 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $388,990 Active 697 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $388,990 Active 696 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $388,990 Active 695 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $388,990 Active 694 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $388,990 Active 693 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $388,990 Active 692 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $388,990 Active 691 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $388,990 Active 690 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $388,990 Active 689 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $388,990 Active 688 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $388,990 Active 687 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $383,990 Active 681 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $383,990 Active 680 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $383,990 Active 678 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $383,990 Active 676 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $383,990 Active 674 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $383,990 Active 673 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $383,990 Active 672 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $383,990 Active 671 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $383,990 Active 670 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $383,990 Active 669 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $383,990 Active 668 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $383,990 Active 667 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $383,990 Active 666 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $383,990 Active 665 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $383,990 Active 664 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $383,990 Active 663 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $383,990 Active 662 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $383,990 Active 661 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $383,990 Active 660 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $383,990 Active 659 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $383,990 Active 658 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $383,990 Active 657 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $383,990 Active 656 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $383,990 Active 655 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $383,990 Active 654 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $383,990 Active 653 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $383,990 Active 651 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $383,990 Active 650 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $383,990 Active 649 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $383,990 Active 648 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $383,990 Active 645 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $383,990 Active 644 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $383,990 Active 643 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $383,990 Active 642 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $383,990 Active 640 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $383,990 Active 638 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $383,990 Active 637 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,557
• − Property taxes: −$6,576
• − Insurance: −$2,192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,062
• − Management: −$3,062
• − Depreciation: −$12,753
• Taxable loss: −$13,930
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,343
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Crownpoint is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract renters and reduce utility costs ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 65/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mccall El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Mcanally Int High Aledo H S B TX #147/1,632 Nat'l #2,426/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aledo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807780
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $102,936
• Composite: 61.94/100
• National rank: #725
• State rank: #11 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Aledo

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #328
• US rank: #7200

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Parker County · 147,426 people
• City population: 25,165
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,165
• Household income: $168,314
• Rent vs Own: 8.2% rent · 91.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.05%
• Current HPI: 242.9582
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $380,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $377,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $372,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $411,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $408,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $409,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-26 Price Changed $406,990 Zillow
• 2024-10-25 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-10-25 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-10-25 Listed $392,990 Zillow