718 Sycamore #104 · Vista, CA 92083

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured · 88 Days on market

Built 1972 1,900 sqft lot $122/sqft · at area comps Est $138k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1,900 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 2.4% in Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#584 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• San Marcos Unified (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #249 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 74 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $130,659 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.98%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,929
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: 0.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
718 Sycamore Ave #134	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-2%)	6mo	$140,000	$125	92
718 Sycamore #22	0.07mi	2/2.5	1,116 (-2%)	20mo	$250,000	$224	74
718 Sycamore Ave #100	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,173 (+3%)	20mo	$282,000	$240	73
718 Sycamore Ave #145	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-9%)	16mo	$190,000	$183	72
718 Sycamore Ave Ave #157	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,260 (+10%)	15mo	$195,000	$155	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $67,620
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $178,862
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92083

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,980 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $1,394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,490	-5% $1,442	+0% $1,394	+5% $1,346	+10% $1,298
Rent	-10% $1,158	-5% $1,276	+0% $1,394	+5% $1,512	+10% $1,629
Rate	-1.0pp $1,464	-0.5pp $1,429	base $1,394	+0.5pp $1,358	+1.0pp $1,321

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1982 Wellington Ln Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$3,036	$3.56	3d	3	0.50mi
1941 Wellington Ln #7 Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	924	$2,750	$2.98	44d	1	0.50mi
2183 Primrose Ave Unit B Vista, CA	1.0	1.0	850	$2,075	$2.44	24d	1	0.51mi
856 Heatherwood Ln Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$2,950	$3.75	3d	8	0.53mi
1961 Anna Ln Vista, CA	3.0	2.0	1407	$3,700	$2.63	13d	1	0.56mi
920 Sycamore Ave Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,675	$2.82	3d	1	0.57mi
221 Smilax Rd Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$2,799	$3.27	2d	8	0.57mi
1906 Northbrook Ct Vista, CA	3.0	2.0	1488	$4,500	$3.02	2d	1	0.60mi
122 Palmyra Dr Vista, CA	2.0	1.5	1054	$2,588	$2.46	44d	1	0.66mi
320 Smilax Rd San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,675	$3.06	44d	1	0.67mi
320 Smilax Rd San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,675	$3.06	24d	1	0.67mi
972 Ashton Ct Vista, CA	3.0	2.5	1482	$4,388	$2.96	5d	1	0.68mi
300 Smilax Rd Unit 11 San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,675	$3.06	24d	1	0.68mi
266 Avenida de Suerte San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1132	$3,495	$3.09	22d	1	0.72mi
2144 University Dr Vista, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	748	$2,815	$3.76	10d	1	0.73mi
420 Smilax Rd San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	896	$2,445	$2.73	3d	3	0.86mi
2080 Buena Creek Rd Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	978	$3,000	$3.07	3d	1	1.05mi
258 Mar Vista Dr Vista, CA	3.0	2.0	1134	$4,250	$3.75	18d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-18
   price $139,000
2. 2026-02-26
   listed $129,000 Active
3. 2011-12-03
   historical
4. 2011-07-12
   historical
5. 2011-07-06
   price $37,000
6. 2010-12-03
   listed $34,500 Active
7. 2010-12-03
   listed $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,861
• − Management: −$2,861
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $15,432
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,704
• After-tax cash flow: $13,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634880
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,752
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #3093
• State rank: #249 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Vista

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #584
• US rank: #18990

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 117,104
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,375
• Household income: $86,974
• Rent vs Own: 50.3% rent · 49.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1813.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% Two or more races 33% White 27% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 57%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 47% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -560.30%
• Current HPI: 417.0863
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.44%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+275.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $139,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $129,000 CRMLS
• 2011-12-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-07-12 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2011-07-06 Price Changed $37,000 SDMLS
• 2010-12-03 Listed $34,500 SDMLS
• 2010-12-03 Listed $37,000 CRMLS