1 Bay Dr #4401 · Kapalua, HI 96761

$150,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,065 sqft · Condo public records · 649 Days on market

Built 2008 $73/sqft · 11% below area Est $169k · 11% under ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.2/10.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Resort at Kapalua Bay, ex Montage. This magnificent 3 Bedroom, 3 1/2 Bath Residence is situated farthest to the North of all fractional units with breathtaking views of Lanai and the west Maui coastline to Lahaina . This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is two consecutive weeks in mid April each year (weeks 14 & 15) plus one float week (in late August through early October). Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. Montage is Hawaii’s newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! Still photos depict this unit’s floorplan. The 3D tour is an actual video of this units views, as it was taken from 4401's lanai. Upcoming deeded time periods: 2026: April 4 - 25 | 2027: April 3 - 17, Aug 28 - Sept 4.

Key facts

• 21 acre lot
• Pool
• Built 2008

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-40k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#102 in HI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 637 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 906 units permitted in Maui County in 2024 (289 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,692/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($101k/yr) (locally 835% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maui County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 649 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 119% of rent.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 649 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.79% ✓
• Cap rate: -20.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -94.42%
• DSCR: -3.20
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,108
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -11.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -4.36×
• Total profit: $-224,940
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -9.15×
• Total profit: $-426,195
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96761

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 637
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,692 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$6,765
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,195
• Net cashflow: $-3,305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,875

Max offer price —

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70 Hui Rd F Lahaina, HI	3.0	2.0	2558	$6,500	$2.54	3d	1	0.83mi
10 Wailele Kai Ln Lahaina, HI	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1390	$6,160	$4.43	3d	8	1.29mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pooldoorman
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 649 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 648 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 646 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 644 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 643 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 641 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 640 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 639 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 638 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 635 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 634 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 633 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 632 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 631 DOM
15. 2026-01-07
    price $150,000 1017-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

    The Resort at Kapalua Bay, ex Montage. This magnificent 3 Bedroom, 3 1/2 Bath Residence is situated farthest to the North of all fractional units with breathtaking views of Lanai and the west Maui coastline to Lahaina . This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is two consecutive weeks in mid April each year (weeks 14 & 15) plus one float week (in late August through early October). Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. Montage is Hawaii’s newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! Still photos depict this unit’s floorplan. The 3D tour is an actual video of this units views, as it was taken from 4401's lanai. Upcoming deeded time periods: 2026: April 4 - 25 | 2027: April 3 - 17, Aug 28 - Sept 4.

16. 2025-12-19
    soldstatus $132,740 Sold 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    Breathtaking views of Lanai are witnessed every day from this ideally located 3 bedroom, 3 ½ bath residence at Montage Kapalua Bay. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is two consecutive weeks in late July, early August each year (weeks 29 & 30) plus one float week (rotating in January-early February or Thnksgiving week). Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. The Association Dues are paid annually for this unit at Hawaii’s 4th and newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! 3D Tour was taken from 4401’s lanai, the Video/Virtual Tour depicts the interior floor plan. Future deeded dates: 2025 January 11 - 18, July 19 - August 2 2026 January 17 - 24, July 18 - August 1 2027 January 23 - 30, July 17 - 31

17. 2025-03-20
    status Pending - Do not Show 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    Breathtaking views of Lanai are witnessed every day from this ideally located 3 bedroom, 3 ½ bath residence at Montage Kapalua Bay. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is two consecutive weeks in late July, early August each year (weeks 29 & 30) plus one float week (rotating in January-early February or Thnksgiving week). Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. The Association Dues are paid annually for this unit at Hawaii’s 4th and newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! 3D Tour was taken from 4401’s lanai, the Video/Virtual Tour depicts the interior floor plan. Future deeded dates: 2025 January 11 - 18, July 19 - August 2 2026 January 17 - 24, July 18 - August 1 2027 January 23 - 30, July 17 - 31

18. 2025-03-07
    price $159,990 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    Breathtaking views of Lanai are witnessed every day from this ideally located 3 bedroom, 3 ½ bath residence at Montage Kapalua Bay. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is two consecutive weeks in late July, early August each year (weeks 29 & 30) plus one float week (rotating in January-early February or Thnksgiving week). Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. The Association Dues are paid annually for this unit at Hawaii’s 4th and newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! 3D Tour was taken from 4401’s lanai, the Video/Virtual Tour depicts the interior floor plan. Future deeded dates: 2025 January 11 - 18, July 19 - August 2 2026 January 17 - 24, July 18 - August 1 2027 January 23 - 30, July 17 - 31

19. 2024-09-28
    listed $199,999 Active 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    Breathtaking views of Lanai are witnessed every day from this ideally located 3 bedroom, 3 ½ bath residence at Montage Kapalua Bay. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is two consecutive weeks in late July, early August each year (weeks 29 & 30) plus one float week (rotating in January-early February or Thnksgiving week). Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. The Association Dues are paid annually for this unit at Hawaii’s 4th and newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! 3D Tour was taken from 4401’s lanai, the Video/Virtual Tour depicts the interior floor plan. Future deeded dates: 2025 January 11 - 18, July 19 - August 2 2026 January 17 - 24, July 18 - August 1 2027 January 23 - 30, July 17 - 31

20. 2024-09-07
    listed $179,000 Active 1017-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

    The Resort at Kapalua Bay, ex Montage. This magnificent 3 Bedroom, 3 1/2 Bath Residence is situated farthest to the North of all fractional units with breathtaking views of Lanai and the west Maui coastline to Lahaina . This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is two consecutive weeks in mid April each year (weeks 14 & 15) plus one float week (in late August through early October). Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. Montage is Hawaii’s newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! Still photos depict this unit’s floorplan. The 3D tour is an actual video of this units views, as it was taken from 4401's lanai. Upcoming deeded time periods: 2026: April 4 - 25 | 2027: April 3 - 17, Aug 28 - Sept 4.

21. 2023-11-17
    soldstatus $247,100
22. 2021-06-07
    soldstatus $242,700 Sold
23. 2021-06-01
    soldstatus $242,700 Sold
24. 2020-09-04
    soldstatus $145,250 Sold
25. 2020-02-20
    price $194,000
26. 2019-10-05
    price $259,000
27. 2019-06-18
    status Active
28. 2019-06-17
    historical
29. 2019-04-29
    soldstatus $125,000 Sold
30. 2019-03-16
    historical Pending - Continue to Show
31. 2018-11-30
    price $149,900
32. 2018-09-28
    price $174,900
33. 2018-05-31
    status Active
34. 2018-05-22
    historical
35. 2017-12-07
    price $275,000
36. 2017-12-06
    price $199,000
37. 2017-07-23
    listed $315,000 Active
38. 2017-07-04
    historical
39. 2017-06-23
    listed $275,000 Active
40. 2017-06-16
    historical
41. 2017-06-05
    listed $245,000 Active
42. 2017-06-05
    historical
43. 2016-10-08
    listed $245,000 Active
44. 2016-10-08
    historical
45. 2016-07-06
    listed $359,000 Active
46. 2016-06-17
    listed $390,000 Active
47. 2016-01-26
    price $245,000
48. 2015-12-29
    listed $279,000 Active
49. 2013-06-13
    soldstatus $263,364

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $68,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,464
• − Management: −$5,464
• − HOA: −$81,180
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$39,569
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,497
• After-tax cash flow: $-30,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Kapalua

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #20456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kapalua, HI
• County: Maui County · 114,195 people
• Metro: Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
• Population (ZIP): 20,952
• Household income: $101,123
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 835.0

Population outlook (Maui County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 185,013 people
• By 2030: 194,315 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 210,917 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 226,396 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 270,475 · +46.2%
• By 2100: 316,825 · +71.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: White 35% Asian 29% Two or more races 25% Hispanic / Latino 13% Pacific Islander 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 12% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Maui

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.9) · D 61.9% · R 36.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.3pp toward R · 2008: 55.2pp · 2024: 25.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.9 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+38.6 2012: D+50.3 2008: D+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.68%
• Current HPI: 389.2894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.97%
• Metro: Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-43.0% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $150,000 RAM MLS
• 2025-12-19 Sold (MLS) $132,740 RAM MLS
• 2025-03-20 Pending — RAM MLS
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $159,990 RAM MLS
• 2024-09-28 Listed $199,999 RAM MLS
• 2024-09-07 Listed $179,000 RAM MLS
• 2023-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $247,100 Public Records
• 2021-06-07 Sold (MLS) $242,700 RAM MLS
• 2021-06-01 Sold (MLS) $242,700 RAM MLS
• 2020-09-04 Sold (MLS) $145,250 RAM MLS
• 2020-02-20 Price Changed $194,000 RAM MLS
• 2019-10-05 Price Changed $259,000 RAM MLS
• 2019-06-18 Relisted — RAM MLS
• 2019-06-17 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2019-04-29 Sold (MLS) $125,000 RAM MLS
• 2019-03-16 Contingent — RAM MLS
• 2018-11-30 Price Changed $149,900 RAM MLS
• 2018-09-28 Price Changed $174,900 RAM MLS
• 2018-05-31 Relisted — RAM MLS
• 2018-05-22 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2017-12-07 Price Changed $275,000 RAM MLS
• 2017-12-06 Price Changed $199,000 RAM MLS
• 2017-07-23 Listed $315,000 RAM MLS
• 2017-07-04 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2017-06-23 Listed $275,000 RAM MLS
• 2017-06-16 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2017-06-05 Listed $245,000 RAM MLS
• 2017-06-05 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2016-10-08 Listed $245,000 RAM MLS
• 2016-10-08 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2016-07-06 Listed $359,000 RAM MLS
• 2016-06-17 Listed $390,000 RAM MLS
• 2016-01-26 Price Changed $245,000 RAM MLS
• 2015-12-29 Listed $279,000 RAM MLS
• 2013-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $263,364 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $68,870 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.