95 Tinker Town Rd · Dover Plains, NY 12522

$398,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1930 0.82 ac lot $199/sqft · 29% above area Est $309k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Incredible value meets timeless country charm in this truly special property, tucked away on nearly a full acre of beautifully landscaped land. Set back from the road, this serene retreat is defined by a rare and captivating feature. .. a true whitewater stream that runs the entire length of the property, offering a peaceful soundtrack and a setting that feels like a getaway every single day. The grounds are nothing short of enchanting. Enjoy level, usable land adorned with mature landscaping, including a magnificent 100-year-old ginkgo tree, delicate cherry blossoms, vibrant rose bushes, lush hostas, and a variety of other plantings that create color and texture throughout the seasons. Whe

Key facts

• Charming gazebo
• Above ground pool
• Inviting firepit

Tags

• 100 YEAR OLD GINKGO TREE
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• CHARMING GAZEBO
• STONE PATIO
• INVITING FIREPIT
• ABOVE GROUND POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $398k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-544/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $390k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $341k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#818 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, housing D+.
• Dover Union Free School District (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #433 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $111k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($392k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $184k; list at $398k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $340,720 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.49%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,611
• List price: $398,000
• Delta: 28.96%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
96 Tinker Town Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,912 (-4%)	18mo	$275,000	$144	68
3465 Route 22	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,836 (-8%)	9mo	$256,000	$139	67
53 Glen Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,786 (-11%)	10mo	$375,000	$210	58
4-6 Neighborly Ln	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,728 (-14%)	13mo	$115,000	$67	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $213,917
• Equity at exit: $358,550

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $632,307
• Equity at exit: $773,226

Cash invested: $111,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12522

• Home prices YoY: 17.7%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,407 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,087
• Tax from tax record: −$484 /mo · $5,808/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,465

Max offer price $389,992

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $180	-5% $67	+0% $-45	+5% $-158	+10% $-271
Rent	-10% $-315	-5% $-180	+0% $-45	+5% $89	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $56	base $-45	+0.5pp $-148	+1.0pp $-253

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,500
• Closing costs: $11,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $398,000 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $398,000 Active
3. 2024-02-02
   historical
4. 2018-06-07
   soldstatus $184,200
5. 2018-04-26
   soldstatus $184,200 Sold
6. 2018-02-21
   historical Pending
7. 2017-11-29
   price $185,000
8. 2017-10-12
   price $219,000
9. 2017-09-13
   listed $225,000 Active
10. 2017-07-11
    soldstatus $69,500
11. 2017-05-31
    soldstatus $69,012
12. 2017-01-16
    listed $74,900
13. 2017-01-12
    historical
14. 2016-10-14
    listed $80,263
15. 2016-10-10
    historical Withdrawn
16. 2016-10-10
    historical
17. 2016-07-16
    price
18. 2016-06-22
    listed Active
19. 2016-06-22
    listed $149,900
20. 2016-06-22
    listed $149,900
21. 2016-06-21
    historical
22. 2015-11-25
    listed $154,900
23. 2015-07-25
    historical
24. 2015-01-26
    listed $319,000
25. 2004-10-15
    soldstatus $196,000
26. 2004-09-27
    soldstatus $185,000
27. 2004-08-19
    historical
28. 2004-08-19
    price $189,900
29. 2004-04-12
    listed $185,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,808 · $484/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,267 · $522/mo
• Expected delta: +$459/yr (+$38/mo · 7.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,294
• − Property taxes: −$5,808
• − Insurance: −$1,990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,271
• − Management: −$3,271
• − Depreciation: −$11,578
• Taxable loss: −$7,326
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,758
• After-tax cash flow: $1,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609210
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 40.25/100
• National rank: #3768
• State rank: #433 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dover Plains

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #818
• US rank: #15806

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living B Crime A Employment D- Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,074

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.50%
• Current HPI: 262.8121
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+115.1% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $398,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $184,200 Public Records
• 2018-04-26 Sold (MLS) $184,200 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-21 Contingent — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-29 Price Changed $185,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-12 Price Changed $219,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-13 Listed $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records
• 2017-05-31 Sold (MLS) $69,012 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-16 Listed $74,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-14 Listed $80,263 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-10 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2016-10-10 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-16 Price Changed — HGMLS
• 2016-06-22 Listed — HGMLS
• 2016-06-22 Listed $149,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-22 Listed $149,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-25 Listed $154,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-25 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-26 Listed $319,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $196,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-27 Sold (MLS) $185,000 HGMLS
• 2004-08-19 Price Changed $189,900 HGMLS
• 2004-08-19 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2004-04-12 Listed $185,000 HGMLS

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,808 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.