16871 Highway 42 · Fayetteville, AL 35143

$36,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 133 Days on market

Built 1990 Good condition $46/sqft · 35% below area Est $56k · 35% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOW! Don't miss this great opportunity to live full time on Lay Lake for only $39,000. The inside has been fully updated and is in great shape. Move in ready! Incredible main channel view, deep water and private pier. Also comes with large carport big enough to store an RV. The home is on a leased lot. Call today for a private tour before its gone.

Key facts

• Main channel view
• Private pier
• Large carport

Tags

• MAIN CHANNEL VIEW
• DEEP WATER
• PRIVATE PIER
• LARGE CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $36k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($804 rent vs $36k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 1.1% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $252 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $32,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.00%
• DSCR: 3.00
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $56,232
• List price: $36,500
• Delta: -35.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16871 Highway 42	0.00mi	1/1.0	800 (0%)	1mo	$36,000	$45	99
16780 County Road 42	0.14mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (-10%)	16mo	$73,000	$101	59
515 Bluegill Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0 (+1)	686 (-14%)	15mo	$70,000	$102	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $18,505
• Equity at exit: $5,442

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $47,591
• Equity at exit: $3,156

Cash invested: $10,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35143

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $804 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$191
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$46 /mo · $548/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $319

Max offer price $36,500

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,125
• Closing costs: $1,095
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $36,500 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $36,500 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-04-11
   price $36,500 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   WOW! Don't miss this great opportunity to live full time on Lay Lake for only $39,000. The inside has been fully updated and is in great shape. Move in ready! Incredible main channel view, deep water and private pier. Also comes with large carport big enough to store an RV. The home is on a leased lot. Call today for a private tour before its gone.

4. 2026-01-19
   listed $39,000 Active 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   WOW! Don't miss this great opportunity to live full time on Lay Lake for only $39,000. The inside has been fully updated and is in great shape. Move in ready! Incredible main channel view, deep water and private pier. Also comes with large carport big enough to store an RV. The home is on a leased lot. Call today for a private tour before its gone.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,045
• − Property taxes: −$548
• − Insurance: −$182
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$772
• − Management: −$772
• − Depreciation: −$1,062
• Taxable income: $4,272
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,025
• After-tax cash flow: $3,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with updated interiors and a dock/pier in good condition. It is move-in ready and offers a great opportunity for a lakeside lifestyle.

Value-add opportunities

• Both dock and pier maintenance — improves both resale and rental value by ensuring the property is fully functional and attractive
• Both painting exterior and interior — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics, increasing both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both dock and pier maintenance — improves both resale and rental value by ensuring the property is fully functional and attractive ↑
• Both painting exterior and interior — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics, increasing both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #13423

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,966

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Korean 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.25%
• Current HPI: 337.6659
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $36,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $39,000 Greater Alabama MLS