1870 Pine Ridge Way W Unit D2 · Palm Harbor, FL 34684

$170,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,038 sqft · Condo public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1983 $405/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated 55+ condo located in a desirable No Flood Zone featuring a true open concept design! A wall has been removed to create a bright, airy living space with a full view of the remodeled kitchen, complete with granite countertops and modern finishes. Newer luxury Vinyl Plank flooring runs throughout home adding a clean, cohesive look. The living area flows seamlessly from the front, cozy screened lanai where you can relax and enjoy a morning cup of coffee overlooking greenspace and walking path. A new hurricane rated triple slider fills the space with natural light while providing additional protection. Additional updates include new A/C (1 1/2 yr old Trane) and remodeled bath

Key facts

• Cozy screened lanai
• Remodeled kitchen
• Open concept design

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• COZY SCREENED LANAI
• HURRICANE RATED TRIPLE SLIDER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Association managed by Susan Aller – Innovative Management
• Financial info: Total monthly HOA fees $405 (total annual fees $4,860); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $405; HOA includes cable TV, internet, pest control, pool, recreational facilities, maintenance (structure & grounds), sewer, trash, water, and escrow reserves; HOA approval required; Community clubhouse; Deed restrictions; Pool; Sidewalks; Senior community; Pets allowed (max ~25 lbs)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; Second-floor unit; North-facing
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as completed condition
• Exterior features: Balcony; Sliding doors; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $171k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $171k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.1% in Palm Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in FL, #1,470 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Highland Lakes Elementary School (math 67% / reading 65%, grade B+, #492 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 529 students, 44% FRL); Palm Harbor University High (math 54% / reading 72%, grade B-, #89 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,474 students, 26% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pinellas average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 371 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $171k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,434 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.71%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-23,926
• Equity at exit: $25,497

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-30,492
• Equity at exit: $14,785

Cash invested: $47,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34684

• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$897
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $608/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$405
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,802

Max offer price $170,999

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,750
• Closing costs: $5,130
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2575 Pine Ridge Way S Unit A2 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,590	$1.44	24d	1	0.10mi
2523 Pine Ridge Way S Unit C2 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,750	$1.69	24d	1	0.11mi
1801 E Orangeside Rd Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1369	$2,575	$1.88	23d	1	0.19mi
144 Stafford Cir Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,295	$1.82	3d	1	0.20mi
1691 E Orangecrest Ave Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1193	$2,600	$2.18	16d	1	0.25mi
1624 Heather Pl Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$2,295	$1.84	24d	1	0.41mi
2481 Malcolm Dr Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1319	$2,600	$1.97	17d	1	0.49mi
2833 Orange Tree Cir N Unit C Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,845	$1.92	24d	1	0.50mi
2334 Citrus Hill Rd Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1189	$2,350	$1.98	3d	1	0.51mi
2700 Nebraska Ave Unit 4-106 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	730	$1,400	$1.92	24d	1	0.55mi
3266 Haviland Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1210	$1,895	$1.57	24d	1	0.76mi
2945 Grovewood Blvd Unit A Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,775	$1.72	17d	1	0.85mi
2690 Coral Landings Blvd Palm Harbor, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1135	$1,700	$1.50	11d	2	0.86mi
2914 Cypress Green Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,600	$2.09	19d	1	0.87mi
3023 Beecher Dr E Unit D Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.5	1425	$2,400	$1.68	17d	1	0.92mi
2130 Bancroft Pl Unit E Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,860	$1.81	7d	1	0.93mi
2130 Bancroft Pl Unit E Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,850	$1.80	3d	1	0.93mi
35820 U.S. 19 Unit A2 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	740	$1,884	$2.55	4d	1	0.93mi
35820 U.S. 19 Unit B1 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,245	$2.01	4d	1	0.93mi
35820 U.S. 19 Unit C1 Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,781	$1.98	4d	1	0.93mi
3121 Beecher Dr E Unit A Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	976	$2,100	$2.15	7d	1	0.95mi
2690 Coral Landings Blvd #415 Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1351	$2,000	$1.48	19d	1	0.99mi
3300 Fox Chase Cir N Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	906	$2,125	$2.35	1d	2	1.07mi
3277 Fox Chase Cir N #211 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	825	$1,495	$1.81	24d	1	1.08mi
36090 US Highway 19 N Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1046	$2,557	$2.44	2d	66	1.09mi
248 St Ives Dr #248 Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,300	$1.70	4d	1	1.14mi
245 Lake Tarpon Dr Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	1d	1	1.16mi
47 Delaware Ct #10 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,800	$1.79	19d	1	1.24mi
274 Beach Ct #42 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	24d	1	1.32mi
4000 Poinciana Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$2,600	$2.00	3d	1	1.34mi
21 Lake Shore Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,895	$2.02	4d	1	1.36mi
65 Lake Shore Dr Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	868	$1,700	$1.96	17d	1	1.37mi
72 Lake Shore Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	17d	1	1.37mi
3462 Maclaren Dr Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$2,150	$2.00	7d	1	1.42mi
218 Maple Ave Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1374	$2,600	$1.89	17d	1	1.43mi
2400 Clubside Ct Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$1,940	$1.72	1d	39	1.46mi
2199 Chianti Pl Unit 9-0923 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$2,300	$2.23	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $405 · $4,860/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $170,999 Active
3. 2019-04-03
   soldstatus $95,000
4. 2019-03-30
   historical
5. 2019-02-15
   price $105,000
6. 2018-05-22
   listed $115,000 Active
7. 2004-11-08
   soldstatus $84,000
8. 1983-09-01
   soldstatus $42,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $608 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$811/yr (+$68/mo · 133.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,579
• − Property taxes: −$608
• − Insurance: −$855
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − HOA: −$4,860
• − Depreciation: −$4,975
• Taxable loss: −$821
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$197
• After-tax cash flow: $1,975/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Harbor

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #1470

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living B Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Harbor, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 79,072
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,029
• Household income: $72,145
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1495.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -296.23%
• Current HPI: 301.651
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+300.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $170,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-15 Price Changed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-22 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 1983-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,700 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $608 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.