105 Texas Ave · Newcastle, TX 76372

$38,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,710 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1925 0.64 ac lot $22/sqft · 66% below area Est $71k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a renovator’s dream! Pretty much a blank canvas just waiting to be brought back to its previous glory.

Key facts

• 0.64 acre lot
• Built 1925
• Listed 103 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $710 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,162 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, crime F.
• Newcastle ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #389 of 1,141 in TX (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Young County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $573 of equity ($263 loan paydown + $310 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Young County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,580 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.06%
• DSCR: 4.56
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $71,180
• List price: $38,000
• Delta: -46.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1000 Broadway	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,950 (+14%)	1mo	$265,000	$136	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $45,600
• Equity at exit: $12,609

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.84×
• Total profit: $104,723
• Equity at exit: $16,478

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76372

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $593/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $710

Break-even live

Break-even rent $335

Max offer price $38,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $38,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $38,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $38,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $38,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $38,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $38,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $38,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $38,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $38,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $38,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $38,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $38,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-03-02
    listed $38,000 Active 116-char remark

    Show marketing remark (116 chars)

    This is a renovator’s dream! Pretty much a blank canvas just waiting to be brought back to its previous glory.

14. 2025-02-12
    soldstatus
15. 1984-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $593 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $695 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$102/yr (+$9/mo · 17.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$593
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,184
• − Management: −$1,184
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $8,416
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,020
• After-tax cash flow: $6,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newcastle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832700
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,623
• Composite: 43.93/100
• National rank: #6284
• State rank: #389 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Newcastle

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1162
• US rank: #20307

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newcastle, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,024

Population outlook (Young County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,860 people
• By 2030: 17,620 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 17,054 · -4.5%
• By 2050: 16,551 · -7.3%
• By 2075: 15,667 · -12.3%
• By 2100: 14,066 · -21.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Young

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.2) · D 11.6% · R 87.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: -63.5pp · 2024: -76.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.2 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+74.6 2012: R+71.5 2008: R+63.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Current HPI: 140.2425
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $38,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $593 · +37.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.