23116 Gilpin Point Rd · Williston, MD 21655

$374,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1989 1.03 ac lot $199/sqft · 23% below area Est $486k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the epitome of comfortable countryside living with this delightful 3-bedroom rancher nestled on a serene 1.03 +/- acre lot in Preston, MD, less than a mile from Ganey's Wharf public boat ramp. This meticulously maintained home provides the ideal setting for your tranquil escape and easy, one-level living. With an inviting layout, a large primary suite with a walk-in closet, separate office great for remote working, a dedicated laundry room with storage, and abundant outdoor space, this property caters to all your needs. This home has been freshly painted, newly manicured landscaping, and has plenty of parking with a large storage shed. Give us a call to schedule your private showing before it's gone!

Key facts

• 1.03 acre lot
• 11 parking spots
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Pets allowed with no pet restrictions; Not in a federal flood zone

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (1 space); Off-street driveway parking (10 spaces); Total garage and parking spaces listed as 11; Gravel driveway
• Security: Flood lights
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic system; Electric hot water
• Home design: Detached structure; Architectural shingle roof; Vinyl siding; Entry level bedroom(s) (main level); Finished above-grade living area noted from assessor
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Crawl space and block foundation; Built in year per assessor (year built source: Assessor)
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting and flood lights; Extensive hardscape and sidewalks; Porch(es); Outbuilding(s) and secure storage; Navigable water access with public access; Dock with pier, ramp and multiple slip (conveys; subject to DNR permit); Fencing at rear (wood and wire)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Electric range/oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (including master bath features)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Jetted tub and walk-in/stall showers; Open and traditional floor plan elements; Breakfast area and eat-in kitchen/table space; Combination dining/living area; Ceiling fans and recessed lighting; Walk-in closets and window treatments; Drywall walls and French door(s); Entry-level bedroom; Other interior features noted
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-673 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (31.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (42.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (42.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#171 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Caroline County Public Schools (rural): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #17 of 24 in MD (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Preston Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #408 of 860 statewide, top 50%, 406 students, 60% FRL); Colonel Richardson Middle School (math 3% / reading 28%, grade F, #190 of 225 statewide, top 85%, 374 students, 72% FRL); Colonel Richardson High School (math 52% / reading 77%, grade B-, #55 of 222 statewide, top 26%, 549 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 48% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Caroline County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,626 (42.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.69%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $486,225
• List price: $374,990
• Delta: -17.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22959 Lyn Oaks Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+1%)	23mo	$460,000	$242	56
23274 Holly Park Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,119 (+13%)	9mo	$875,000	$413	36
23278 Holly Park Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,711 (-9%)	23mo	$756,000	$442	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $150,554
• Equity at exit: $326,430

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $474,239
• Equity at exit: $692,180

Cash invested: $104,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21655

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,156 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,046/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-673

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,008

Max offer price $256,087

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-461	-5% $-567	+0% $-673	+5% $-779	+10% $-885
Rent	-10% $-843	-5% $-758	+0% $-673	+5% $-588	+10% $-503
Rate	-1.0pp $-484	-0.5pp $-578	base $-673	+0.5pp $-770	+1.0pp $-869

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,748
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $374,990 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $374,990 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $374,990 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,990 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,990 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,990 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,990 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,990 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $374,990 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $374,990 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $374,990 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $374,990 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $374,990 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    status $374,990 Active 1 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $374,990 Coming Soon 1 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $399,000 2345-char remark
17. 2026-05-01
    price $424,000 2345-char remark
18. 2026-02-27
    listed $434,000 Active 2345-char remark
19. 2026-02-14
    historical $434,000 2345-char remark
20. 2023-10-04
    soldstatus $380,000
21. 2023-09-27
    soldstatus $380,000 Closed 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Discover the epitome of comfortable countryside living with this delightful 3-bedroom rancher nestled on a serene 1.03 +/- acre lot in Preston, MD, less than a mile from Ganey's Wharf public boat ramp. This meticulously maintained home provides the ideal setting for your tranquil escape and easy, one-level living. With an inviting layout, a large primary suite with a walk-in closet, separate office great for remote working, a dedicated laundry room with storage, and abundant outdoor space, this property caters to all your needs. This home has been freshly painted, newly manicured landscaping, and has plenty of parking with a large storage shed. Give us a call to schedule your private showing before it's gone!

22. 2023-08-27
    status Pending 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Discover the epitome of comfortable countryside living with this delightful 3-bedroom rancher nestled on a serene 1.03 +/- acre lot in Preston, MD, less than a mile from Ganey's Wharf public boat ramp. This meticulously maintained home provides the ideal setting for your tranquil escape and easy, one-level living. With an inviting layout, a large primary suite with a walk-in closet, separate office great for remote working, a dedicated laundry room with storage, and abundant outdoor space, this property caters to all your needs. This home has been freshly painted, newly manicured landscaping, and has plenty of parking with a large storage shed. Give us a call to schedule your private showing before it's gone!

23. 2023-08-25
    listed $380,000 Active 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Discover the epitome of comfortable countryside living with this delightful 3-bedroom rancher nestled on a serene 1.03 +/- acre lot in Preston, MD, less than a mile from Ganey's Wharf public boat ramp. This meticulously maintained home provides the ideal setting for your tranquil escape and easy, one-level living. With an inviting layout, a large primary suite with a walk-in closet, separate office great for remote working, a dedicated laundry room with storage, and abundant outdoor space, this property caters to all your needs. This home has been freshly painted, newly manicured landscaping, and has plenty of parking with a large storage shed. Give us a call to schedule your private showing before it's gone!

24. 2019-06-28
    soldstatus $232,000 Closed
25. 2019-06-01
    status Pending
26. 2019-06-01
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2019-05-15
    status Active
28. 2019-04-22
    status Pending
29. 2019-03-28
    listed $247,000 Active
30. 2010-01-15
    soldstatus $230,000
31. 2009-09-11
    historical
32. 2009-09-11
    historical
33. 2009-07-31
    price
34. 2009-02-17
    price
35. 2009-01-26
    listed
36. 2009-01-26
    listed $249,000
37. 2008-10-01
    historical
38. 2008-07-15
    price
39. 2008-04-04
    listed
40. 2007-11-06
    historical
41. 2007-09-06
    listed
42. 2006-05-30
    soldstatus $175,000
43. 2002-12-04
    soldstatus $116,000
44. 2002-10-31
    soldstatus $116,000
45. 2002-09-17
    historical
46. 2002-06-25
    listed $129,900
47. 1997-02-24
    soldstatus $84,500
48. 1997-02-14
    soldstatus $84,500
49. 1997-01-06
    historical
50. 1995-04-23
    listed $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,046 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,566 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$521/yr (+$43/mo · 17.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,005
• − Property taxes: −$3,046
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,070
• − Management: −$2,070
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$15,099
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,624
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400180
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,076
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8823
• State rank: #17 of 24 in MD

Livability — Williston

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #7659

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,995

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,205 people
• By 2030: 30,204 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 27,866 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 25,342 · -18.8%
• By 2075: 20,554 · -34.1%
• By 2100: 17,415 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 29.9% · R 67.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.0pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+32.9 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+23.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.58%
• Current HPI: 319.9345
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+341.2% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $374,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-02 Coming Soon $374,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $399,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $424,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $434,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-14 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $380,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-27 Sold (MLS) $380,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-08-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-08-25 Listed $380,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-06-28 Sold (MLS) $232,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-06-01 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-06-01 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-05-15 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-22 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-28 Listed $247,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2009-09-11 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-09-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-07-31 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2009-02-17 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2009-01-26 Listed — MRIS
• 2009-01-26 Listed $249,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-10-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-07-15 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2008-04-04 Listed — MRIS
• 2007-11-06 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-09-06 Listed — MRIS
• 2006-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records
• 2002-10-31 Sold (MLS) $116,000 MRIS
• 2002-09-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 2002-06-25 Listed $129,900 MRIS
• 1997-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $84,500 Public Records
• 1997-02-14 Sold (MLS) $84,500 MRIS
• 1997-01-06 Delisted — MRIS
• 1995-04-23 Listed $85,000 MRIS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,046 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.