9209 Osage Grand Ave · Taos, MO 65101

$30,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1950 1.42 ac lot ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lot near the Osage River with electric and water to house. House is in disrepair and will need removed. Small community close to Jefferson City to be away from the hustle and bustle.

Key facts

• Electric and water
• Osage river
• Small community

Tags

• OSAGE RIVER
• ELECTRIC AND WATER
• SMALL COMMUNITY
• CLOSE TO JEFFERSON CITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: 1.42-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 total room
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($999 rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#136 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jefferson City (urban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #121 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Moreau Heights Elem. (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 328 students, 60% FRL); Lewis And Clark Middle (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #243 of 391 statewide, top 65%, 1,005 students, 56% FRL); Jefferson City High (math 46% / reading 63%, grade C-, #69 of 521 statewide, top 15%, 1,296 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 173 units permitted in Cole County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cole County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.17%
• DSCR: 4.70
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $5,329
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $18,530
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65101

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $802

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $30,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $30,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $30,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $30,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $30,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $30,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $30,000 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-02-07
    listed $30,000 Active 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Lot near the Osage River with electric and water to house. House is in disrepair and will need removed. Small community close to Jefferson City to be away from the hustle and bustle.

19. 2026-02-07
    listed $30,000 Active 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Lot near the Osage River with electric and water to house. House is in disrepair and will need removed. Small community close to Jefferson City to be away from the hustle and bustle.

20. 2026-02-07
    listed $30,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Lot near the Osage River with electric and water to house. House is in disrepair and will need removed. Small community close to Jefferson City to be away from the hustle and bustle.

21. 2025-08-25
    price $29,000
22. 2025-08-25
    price $29,000
23. 2025-08-25
    price $29,000
24. 2024-09-23
    price $35,000
25. 2024-09-23
    price $35,000
26. 2024-09-23
    price $35,000
27. 2024-08-27
    listed $40,000 Active
28. 2024-08-27
    listed $40,000 Active
29. 2022-10-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$5,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$959
• − Management: −$959
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $1,802
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$432
• After-tax cash flow: $1,435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson City
• NCES district ID: 2916190
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,903
• Composite: 35.45/100
• National rank: #4930
• State rank: #121 of 324 in MO

Livability — Taos

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #136
• US rank: #7797

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,777

Population outlook (Cole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,107 people
• By 2030: 78,089 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 76,814 · -1.7%
• By 2050: 74,515 · -4.6%
• By 2075: 67,687 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 55,023 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cole

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.4) · D 32.1% · R 66.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -34.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.4 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.16%
• Current HPI: 209.3832
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-07 Listed $30,000 HMMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $30,000 JCMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $30,000 CBORMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $29,000 JCMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $29,000 HMMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $29,000 CBORMLS
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $35,000 HMMLS
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $35,000 CBORMLS
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $35,000 JCMLS
• 2024-08-27 Listed $40,000 HMMLS
• 2024-08-27 Listed $40,000 CBORMLS
• 2022-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $51 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.