148 Twins Trl · Hutto, TX 78634

$305,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,954 sqft · Other · 41 Days on market

Built 2026 4,464 sqft lot $157/sqft · 12% below area Est $347k · 12% under $68/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Whitetail - The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Winfield Park HOA); HOA fee $68 per month (covers common area maintenance); Community amenities: playground, pool, sport court(s)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: 2-story home; New construction; Faces northwest
• Construction: Built by Lennar; Brick and cement siding with HardiPlank; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard; Front yard; Interior lot; Privacy wood fencing; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Main-level primary bedroom; Open floor plan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $306k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-178 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.6% in Hutto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in TX, #2,794 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Hutto ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #438 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hutto El (math 33% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 744 students, 36% FRL); Hutto H S (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,010 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 1039 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $220,894 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,132
• List price: $305,999
• Delta: -11.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-67,481
• Equity at exit: $45,625

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-98,722
• Equity at exit: $26,457

Cash invested: $85,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78634

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 1039
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,209 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,605
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,475/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,434

Max offer price $274,550

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5	-5% $-91	+0% $-178	+5% $-265	+10% $-351
Rent	-10% $-353	-5% $-265	+0% $-178	+5% $-91	+10% $-4
Rate	-1.0pp $-24	-0.5pp $-100	base $-178	+0.5pp $-257	+1.0pp $-338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,500
• Closing costs: $9,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
223 Chickasaw Ln Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2356	$2,275	$0.97	6d	1	0.52mi
223 Chickasaw Ln Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2356	$2,300	$0.98	19d	1	0.52mi
105 Ulmus St Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1919	$2,100	$1.09	45d	1	0.58mi
202 Quail Cir Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,700	$1.19	24d	1	0.60mi
101 Red Buckeye St Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1919	$2,200	$1.15	45d	1	0.61mi
1015 Bluejack Way Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$2,475	$1.40	6d	1	0.62mi
741 Carol Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,150	$1.18	45d	1	0.63mi
201 Quail Cir Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,950	$1.37	45d	1	0.63mi
741 Carol Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,150	$1.18	19d	1	0.63mi
1001 Bluejack Way Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,045	$1.26	6d	1	0.63mi
746 Carol Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2298	$2,099	$0.91	4d	1	0.64mi
1005 Pallano Rd Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1910	$2,250	$1.18	19d	1	0.78mi
117 Colthorpe Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,950	$1.12	46d	1	0.96mi
401 County Road 199 Hutto, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1013	$2,443	$2.41	0d	65	1.10mi
132 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$4,800	$3.75	19d	1	1.18mi
112 Creekside Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1352	$1,875	$1.39	19d	1	1.20mi
104 Bankside Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,250	$1.07	13d	1	1.26mi
106 Phillips St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1930	$1,895	$0.98	26d	1	1.29mi
106 Phillips St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1930	$1,895	$0.98	14d	1	1.29mi
1007 Wolseley Cv Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2356	$2,295	$0.97	6d	1	1.29mi
108 Greenspire Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,100	$1.13	45d	1	1.31mi
208 Skyfire ST Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,995	$1.25	26d	1	1.31mi
208 Skyfire ST Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,995	$1.25	45d	1	1.31mi
102 Greenspire Ln Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2199	$2,295	$1.04	45d	1	1.34mi
318 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,900	$1.33	6d	1	1.34mi
102 Ostracoda Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	2474	$2,250	$0.91	6d	1	1.35mi
202 Fairmeadow Downs Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	2116	$2,225	$1.05	45d	1	1.37mi
204 Big Sandy Creek Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2314	$2,300	$0.99	45d	1	1.38mi
202 Big Sandy Creek Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2282	$2,275	$1.00	45d	1	1.39mi
126 Fairmeadow Downs Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1607	$1,995	$1.24	45d	1	1.39mi
203 E Pecan St Unit B Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1688	$1,900	$1.13	16d	1	1.40mi
318 Durango Downs Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,850	$1.41	45d	1	1.41mi
128 Big Sandy Creek Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	2035	$2,300	$1.13	45d	1	1.42mi
235 Sweetwater Creek Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,850	$1.26	19d	1	1.42mi
216 Arnage Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,125	$1.01	6d	1	1.43mi
124 Carrington St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1742	$1,965	$1.13	6d	1	1.43mi
607 Water Way Ave Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1830	$1,995	$1.09	0d	1	1.44mi
231 Sweetwater Creek Ln Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1839	$2,290	$1.25	19d	1	1.45mi
110 Grapefruit Rd Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	2581	$2,275	$0.88	46d	1	1.45mi
207 Coventry Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$1,950	$1.20	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $305,999 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $305,999 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,999 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,999 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,999 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,999 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $305,999 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,999 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $310,999 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $310,999 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,999 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,999 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,999 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,999 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $314,999 621-char remark
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $322,999 Active 621-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,600 · $467/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,125/yr (+$344/mo · 279.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,141
• − Property taxes: −$1,475
• − Insurance: −$1,530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,121
• − Management: −$2,121
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$8,902
• Taxable loss: −$7,597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,823
• After-tax cash flow: $-313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hutto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $72,961
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5501
• State rank: #438 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hutto

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #2794

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 46,413
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,413
• Household income: $114,426
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 410.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.56%
• Current HPI: 194.2221
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.41%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $305,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $310,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $313,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $314,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $322,999 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

-9.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,475 · -9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.