18182 W Desert Ln · Surprise, AZ 85388

$450,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,703 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2008 6,442 sqft lot $166/sqft · 10% below area Est $502k · 10% under $79/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

INCREDIBLE VALUE in the highly sought after Surprise Farms community! This massive 5 bedroom, 3 bath home offers the space, layout, and potential buyers have been waiting for. Featuring a downstairs bedroom and full bath, expansive living areas, formal dining space, oversized loft, and a functional open concept kitchen with island, walk in pantry, breakfast nook, and plenty of storage. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite includes a private balcony, large walk in closet, and ensuite bath with dual sinks, soaking tub, and separate shower. HVAC replaced in 2022 and exterior recently painted. The backyard is ready for your vision and personal touch. Sold AS IS and priced aggressively to reflec

Key facts

• Oversized loft
• Open concept kitchen
• Formal dining space

Tags

• DOWNSTAIRS BEDROOM
• FULL BATH
• EXPANSIVE LIVING AREAS
• FORMAL DINING SPACE
• OVERSIZED LOFT
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing: Other
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee of $237; Association covers grounds maintenance; Association rules restrict visible trucks, trailers, RVs, and boats; Community amenities include tennis courts, playground, and biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 carport spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 4 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Balcony; Block fencing; Desert and mountain views; Desert-front landscaping with gravel/stone front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 7 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double vanity; Separate shower and tub; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Upstairs living area; Dual-pane windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-559 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (21.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (37.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (37.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Western Peaks Elementary (math 34% / reading 48%, grade F, #386 of 1,109 statewide, top 35%, 628 students, 41% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $217k; list at $450k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $282,463 (37.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.32%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $501,563
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -10.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18334 W Marshall Ln	0.21mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,803 (+4%)	3mo	$799,990	$285	72
18328 W Saguaro Ln	0.20mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,519 (-7%)	2mo	$388,250	$154	67
18467 W Statler St	0.46mi	5/3.0	2,847 (+5%)	3mo	$600,000	$211	64
18221 W Carmen Dr	0.17mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,346 (-13%)	1mo	$450,000	$192	62
18403 W Port AU Prince Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,741 (+1%)	5mo	$500,000	$182	62
16475 N 183rd Dr	0.51mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,645 (-2%)	5mo	$380,000	$144	62
18024 W Maui Ln	0.45mi	5/3.0	2,504 (-7%)	3mo	$370,000	$148	61
18171 W Marshall Ln	0.23mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,958 (+9%)	3mo	$555,000	$188	60
18527 W Caribbean Ln	0.48mi	5/3.5	3,042 (+12%)	1mo	$655,000	$215	54
18456 W Paradise Ln	0.43mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,024 (+12%)	1mo	$715,000	$236	52
18398 W Rimrock St	0.35mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,081 (+14%)	0mo	$696,000	$226	49
17915 W Maui Ln	0.50mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,463 (-9%)	5mo	$450,000	$183	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-51,156
• Equity at exit: $137,099

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-57,061
• Equity at exit: $170,025

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,825 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,970/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $-559

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,532

Max offer price $351,236

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-304	-5% $-432	+0% $-559	+5% $-686	+10% $-814
Rent	-10% $-782	-5% $-671	+0% $-559	+5% $-448	+10% $-336
Rate	-1.0pp $-332	-0.5pp $-445	base $-559	+0.5pp $-676	+1.0pp $-794

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18089 W Westpark Blvd Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2313	$2,101	$0.91	25d	1	0.16mi
16124 N 180th Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2958	$2,795	$0.94	6d	1	0.30mi
18188 W Paradise Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1941	$2,200	$1.13	44d	1	0.34mi
18096 W Paradise Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,315	$1.12	44d	1	0.36mi
17932 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2635	$2,195	$0.83	44d	1	0.42mi
17867 W Westpark Blvd Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1767	$3,500	$1.98	44d	1	0.42mi
15225 N 185th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.5	2941	$5,000	$1.70	22d	1	0.44mi
18515 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2254	$2,300	$1.02	6d	1	0.44mi
17912 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2151	$2,155	$1.00	18d	1	0.48mi
17818 W Acapulco Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1930	$2,045	$1.06	44d	1	0.57mi
18272 W Bridger St Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2285	$2,145	$0.94	44d	1	0.61mi
17753 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2453	$2,245	$0.92	25d	1	0.63mi
17722 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,185	$1.24	2d	1	0.67mi
17610 W Ironwood St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2149	$2,150	$1.00	5d	1	0.79mi
17110 N 184th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2661	$2,460	$0.92	3d	1	0.92mi
17110 N 184th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2661	$2,790	$1.05	44d	1	0.93mi
17856 W Watson Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	3336	$3,200	$0.96	25d	1	0.97mi
17440 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2159	$2,300	$1.07	3d	1	1.00mi
17331 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2403	$2,295	$0.96	44d	1	1.02mi
15164 N 173rd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2048	$2,495	$1.22	24d	1	1.05mi
17762 W Watson Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	3318	$3,530	$1.06	25d	1	1.05mi
17395 W Langer Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	1902	$1,995	$1.05	25d	1	1.08mi
17315 W Tara Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,500	$1.05	11d	1	1.09mi
17273 W Carmen Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.0	3166	$2,800	$0.88	11d	1	1.09mi
17747 W Ventura St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	1978	$1,845	$0.93	44d	1	1.19mi
17229 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2291	$2,245	$0.98	5d	1	1.22mi
16003 N Cristine Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,200	$0.92	44d	1	1.23mi
17593 N 185th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2661	$2,695	$1.01	2d	1	1.23mi
17236 W Country Gables Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2291	$2,795	$1.22	44d	1	1.25mi
16444 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2285	$2,795	$1.22	12d	1	1.26mi
15143 N 172nd Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.0	2291	$2,795	$1.22	44d	1	1.29mi
17259 W Smokey Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2190	$2,150	$0.98	6d	1	1.36mi
17127 W Statler St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2543	$2,600	$1.02	25d	1	1.40mi
18374 W Weatherby Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.0	2631	$2,295	$0.87	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $450,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $450,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $450,000 Active 777-char remark
15. 2026-04-12
    historical
16. 2026-01-12
    listed $470,000 Active
17. 2025-11-07
    historical
18. 2025-06-27
    listed $470,000 Active
19. 2024-09-15
    historical
20. 2024-05-29
    listed $519,900 Active
21. 2015-02-27
    soldstatus $217,000
22. 2015-01-26
    status Pending
23. 2015-01-16
    price $219,000
24. 2014-09-06
    listed $225,000 Active
25. 2014-06-09
    historical
26. 2014-04-02
    listed $234,900 Active
27. 2014-03-31
    historical
28. 2014-02-27
    price $234,900
29. 2014-01-02
    status Active
30. 2013-12-07
    historical
31. 2013-11-27
    status Active
32. 2013-11-25
    historical
33. 2013-09-27
    price $239,900
34. 2013-09-07
    price $245,000
35. 2013-08-20
    price $259,000
36. 2013-08-13
    price $279,000
37. 2013-08-13
    listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,970 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,970 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,000/yr (+$83/mo · 50.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$1,970
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,712
• − Management: −$2,712
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$14,994
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,599
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+151.4% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $450,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $470,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $470,000 ARMLS
• 2024-09-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-05-29 Listed $519,900 ARMLS
• 2015-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $217,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-26 Pending — ARMLS
• 2015-01-16 Price Changed $219,000 ARMLS
• 2014-09-06 Listed $225,000 ARMLS
• 2014-06-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-04-02 Listed $234,900 ARMLS
• 2014-03-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-02-27 Price Changed $234,900 ARMLS
• 2014-01-02 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2013-12-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2013-11-27 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2013-11-25 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2013-09-27 Price Changed $239,900 ARMLS
• 2013-09-07 Price Changed $245,000 ARMLS
• 2013-08-20 Price Changed $259,000 ARMLS
• 2013-08-13 Price Changed $279,000 ARMLS
• 2013-08-13 Listed $179,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,970 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.