111 Faye Cir · Little Elm, TX 75068

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 996 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 162 Days on market

Built 1959 4,443 sqft lot $151/sqft · 48% below area Est $287k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for buyers or investors to make improvements or build a new custom home! Seller will make no repairs & Property is being sold as-is. Lot can be sold together with 113 Faye Circle, or separate. Property does contain new gas lines and HVAC Equipment. Enjoy nearby access to a sandy beach, swimming areas, kayak and paddleboard rentals, boating and fishing, scenic lakefront trails, parks, open green spaces, and Cottonwood Creek Marina. The area also offers waterfront dining, seasonal community events, live entertainment, and year-round family-friendly amenities, including an indoor water park and playgrounds. 7 miles from the bustling metropolitan city of Frisco and the Dallas North Tollway, and 8 Miles to 35E, + only a 30 Minute Drive to DFW International Airport!

Key facts

• Sandy beach
• Boating and fishing
• Waterfront dining

Tags

• SANDY BEACH
• SWIMMING AREAS
• KAYAK AND PADDLEBOARD RENTALS
• BOATING AND FISHING
• SCENIC LAKEFRONT TRAILS
• WATERFRONT DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $726 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.0% in Little Elm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#790 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Little Elm ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #327 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1306 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.74%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,912
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -47.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 Riney Rd	0.47mi	2/1.0	931 (-6%)	10mo	$344,900	$370	59
406 S Park St	0.66mi	2/1.0	962 (-3%)	7mo	$230,000	$239	58
316 E Park St	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,135 (+14%)	17mo	$370,000	$326	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $15,630
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $48,824
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75068

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 1306
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,142 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,412/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $726

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 E Eldorado Pkwy Little Elm, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$2,049	$2.05	2d	21	0.36mi
300 Lakefront Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	926	$2,119	$2.29	3d	59	1.21mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-01-07
    listed $150,000 Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Great opportunity for buyers or investors to make improvements or build a new custom home! Seller will make no repairs & Property is being sold as-is. Lot can be sold together with 113 Faye Circle, or separate. Property does contain new gas lines and HVAC Equipment. Enjoy nearby access to a sandy beach, swimming areas, kayak and paddleboard rentals, boating and fishing, scenic lakefront trails, parks, open green spaces, and Cottonwood Creek Marina. The area also offers waterfront dining, seasonal community events, live entertainment, and year-round family-friendly amenities, including an indoor water park and playgrounds. 7 miles from the bustling metropolitan city of Frisco and the Dallas North Tollway, and 8 Miles to 35E, + only a 30 Minute Drive to DFW International Airport!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,412 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,333/yr (+$111/mo · 94.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,412
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,057
• − Management: −$2,057
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $6,668
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,600
• After-tax cash flow: $7,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Elm ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827720
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $76,400
• Composite: 36.17/100
• National rank: #4734
• State rank: #327 of 826 in TX

Livability — Little Elm

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #790
• US rank: #14430

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Little Elm, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 72,710
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,710
• Household income: $126,635
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 829.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.41%
• Current HPI: 249.755
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.50%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Listed $150,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,412 · +19.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.