317 Trinity River Holw · San Marcos, TX 78666

$199,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,802 sqft · SingleFamily · 136 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,227 sqft lot $111/sqft · 8% below area Est $217k · 8% under $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Highgate - Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner’s suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1122 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.22%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,490
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -8.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
232 Navidad River Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,802 (0%)	2mo	$215,990	$120	96
212 Navidad River Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,802 (0%)	1mo	$198,999	$110	95
208 Trinity River Holw	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+3%)	1mo	$235,990	$128	88
219 Navidad River Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,845 (+2%)	1mo	$226,990	$123	88
224 Trinity River Holw	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+5%)	1mo	$229,990	$122	87
235 Navidad River Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+5%)	1mo	$232,990	$123	87
136 Trinity River Holw	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+5%)	1mo	$239,999	$127	85
223 Navidad River Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-5%)	1mo	$224,990	$132	84
214 Trinity River Holw	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-5%)	1mo	$223,990	$131	84
116 Stumpy St	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,845 (+2%)	1mo	$264,990	$144	82
109 Navidad River Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,845 (+2%)	2mo	$262,990	$143	82
124 Stumpy St	0.23mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+11%)	1mo	$276,990	$138	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-24,813
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,244
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1122
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,022 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,832

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
308 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	24d	1	0.06mi
213 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	2162	$2,195	$1.02	2d	1	0.13mi
426 Spring River Dr Martindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,250	$1.78	24d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $199,999 Pending 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,999 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,999 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,999 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,999 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-05-19
    price $199,999 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    The Highgate - Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner’s suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

13. 2026-05-17
    price $199,999 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family.

14. 2026-05-15
    price $217,999 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family.

15. 2026-05-14
    price $217,999 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family.

16. 2026-05-14
    listed $219,999 Active 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family.

17. 2026-05-12
    price $219,999 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    The Highgate - Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner’s suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

18. 2026-05-08
    price $222,999 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    The Highgate - Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner’s suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

19. 2026-05-06
    price $224,999 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    The Highgate - Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner’s suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

20. 2026-04-20
    price $235,999 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    The Highgate - Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner’s suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

21. 2026-01-30
    listed $240,990 Active 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    The Highgate - Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner’s suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,941
• − Management: −$1,941
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,417
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$340
• After-tax cash flow: $2,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and ideal for both resale and rental.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6504.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $199,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $199,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $217,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $217,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $219,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $219,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $222,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $224,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $235,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $240,990 Unlock MLS