8931 S Starlight Ln · Knik-Fairview, AK 99623

$480,000

0 bd · 8.8 ba · 3,000 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 233 Days on market

Built 2006 0.92 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Cute and easy to rent cabins! Each unit is connected to community well and septic system. Owner currently pays gas and electric. East to maintain with strong rental history . Built in 2006. Great investment Has a little store/ office that could be another rental.opportunity and less expensive than a 4-plex

Key facts

• Septic system
• 0.92 acre lot
• 15 parking spots

Tags

• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• STRONG RENTAL HISTORY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/2.2-bath units multifamily listed at $480k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive. Per door: $531/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $480k).
• Recommended offer: $422k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,509/mo this rent would consume 88% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 285% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $134k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $422,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.97%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $58,592
• Equity at exit: $71,570

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $229,540
• Equity at exit: $41,502

Cash invested: $134,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 24.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,509 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax from tax record: −$300 /mo · $3,599/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,367
• Net cashflow: $2,125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,819

Max offer price $480,000

Occupancy floor 62%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	2.2	$6,508
Total (4 units)			$6,509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $120,000
• Closing costs: $14,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $480,000 Active 233 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $480,000 Active 232 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $480,000 Active 231 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $480,000 Active 230 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $480,000 Active 228 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $480,000 Active 227 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $480,000 Active 225 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $480,000 Active 224 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $480,000 Active 223 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $480,000 Active 222 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $480,000 Active 218 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $480,000 Active 217 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $480,000 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $480,000 Active 215 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $480,000 Active 214 DOM
16. 2025-10-27
    listed $480,000 Active 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Cute and easy to rent cabins! Each unit is connected to community well and septic system. Owner currently pays gas and electric. East to maintain with strong rental history . Built in 2006. Great investment Has a little store/ office that could be another rental.opportunity and less expensive than a 4-plex

17. 2006-05-05
    soldstatus
18. 2004-05-12
    listed $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,599 · $300/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,656 · $388/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,056/yr (+$88/mo · 29.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,887
• − Property taxes: −$3,599
• − Insurance: −$2,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,249
• − Management: −$6,249
• − Depreciation: −$13,964
• Taxable income: $18,761
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,503
• After-tax cash flow: $20,998/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Knik-Fairview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knik-Fairview, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+4700.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-27 Listed $480,000 AKMLS
• 2006-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-05-12 Listed $10,000 AKMLS