3419 Cedarwood Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$230,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · SingleFamily · 98 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,227 sqft lot Garage $161/sqft · 23% below area Est $299k · 23% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new 3 2 DR Horton Home in Talty, TX. Home features an open concept with quartz counter tops, stainless steal appliance. Full SOD and sprinkler included.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Sprinkler included
• Quartz counter tops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCE
• FULL SOD
• SPRINKLER INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $231k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($279/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willett El (725 students, 32% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 3067 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 60d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $210,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.43%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,593
• List price: $230,990
• Delta: -22.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3319 Twilight Trl	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	0mo	$238,990	$187	82
3530 Spring Time St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,434 (0%)	3mo	$240,990	$168	80
Balfour Bnd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	18mo	$350,000	$228	72
3507 Spring Time St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	2mo	$235,990	$184	64
3522 Spring Time St	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+10%)	1mo	$250,990	$160	61
3423 Cedarwood Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+10%)	2mo	$250,990	$160	60
207 Cornell Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-5%)	4mo	$264,900	$195	58
214 Centenary Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-2%)	18mo	$265,000	$188	55
1438 Merlin Buff St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-9%)	6mo	$234,999	$180	49
1432 Merlin Buff St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-9%)	10mo	$243,699	$187	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-39,185
• Equity at exit: $34,441

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-45,067
• Equity at exit: $19,972

Cash invested: $64,677 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 19 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.5 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $237,990 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 41 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 3067
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,103 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,211
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$289 /mo · $3,465/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,074

Max offer price $230,990

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $183	-5% $103	+0% $23	+5% $-57	+10% $-136
Rent	-10% $-143	-5% $-60	+0% $23	+5% $106	+10% $189
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $82	base $23	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,748
• Closing costs: $6,930
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5507 Cavalcade Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$3,000	$1.76	54d	1	0.32mi
309 Stanford Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,900	$1.23	49d	1	0.52mi
233 Amherst Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,779	$1.17	41d	1	0.55mi
312 Stanford Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,900	$1.29	41d	1	0.60mi
300 Stanford Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1714	$1,895	$1.11	49d	1	0.67mi
207 Amherst Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,811	$1.26	51d	1	0.70mi
210 Windsor Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,725	$1.18	20d	1	0.79mi
321 S Chestnut St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1831	$2,150	$1.17	120d	1	0.85mi
128 Stanford Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$2,120	$1.28	6d	1	0.88mi
124 Stanford Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,800	$1.21	103d	1	0.90mi
124 Stanford Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,800	$1.21	85d	1	0.90mi
609 E Buffalo St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,975	$1.81	67d	1	0.90mi
609 E Buffalo St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,850	$1.70	48d	1	0.90mi
609 E Buffalo St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,730	$1.59	6d	1	0.90mi
413 Driftwood Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1733	$2,000	$1.15	111d	1	0.90mi
413 Driftwood Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1733	$1,999	$1.15	106d	1	0.90mi
121 Princeton Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$2,045	$1.27	90d	1	0.98mi
121 Princeton Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$2,045	$1.27	78d	1	0.98mi
105 Princeton Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,760	$1.18	24d	1	0.99mi
310 E Church St Unit A Forney, TX	2.0	1.5	1776	$1,500	$0.84	6d	1	0.99mi
201 Wildwood Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	985	$2,380	$2.42	1d	17	0.99mi
404 Oak St Unit 1 Forney, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	90d	1	1.03mi
116 Princeton Cir Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1752	$2,400	$1.37	59d	1	1.04mi
116 Princeton Cir Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1752	$2,400	$1.37	90d	1	1.04mi
114 Mandarin St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,400	$1.28	84d	1	1.05mi
206 Spruce Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,900	$1.27	26d	1	1.07mi
110 Greenfield Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1796	$2,140	$1.19	51d	1	1.10mi
105 Fieldwood Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$2,400	$1.32	116d	1	1.11mi
300 Trailhouse Ln Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	936	$1,885	$2.01	4d	24	1.11mi
407 S Bois D Arc St Forney, TX	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,500	$1.49	139d	1	1.26mi
308 Chinaberry Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1772	$1,950	$1.10	139d	1	1.29mi
304 Burgett St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,595	$1.13	139d	1	1.31mi
513 Burgett St Forney, TX	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,495	$1.42	4d	1	1.36mi
517 Burgett St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,635	$1.28	76d	1	1.36mi
517 Burgett St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,595	$1.25	45d	1	1.36mi
236 Pennridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,295	$1.23	120d	1	1.38mi
2105 Cardinal Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,050	$1.16	12d	1	1.42mi
211 W Trinity St Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	908	$1,500	$1.65	1d	1	1.43mi
2201 Woodberry Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,050	$1.11	139d	1	1.45mi
4005 Waterford Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1852	$2,350	$1.27	139d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility DistrictBuilder special listing condition
• HOA & community: Mandatory associationSemi-annual HOA fee ($250) with full use of facilitiesHOA managed by Neighborhood Management, Inc.

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces (approx. 19' x 20')Covered parking for 2 vehiclesDriveway
• Utilities: MUD waterMUD sewer12+ inch attic insulationThermostatWater heaterEnergy-efficient windows
• Home design: Single family residenceOne storyNew construction (2026)
• Construction: Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Lot in Maplewood Meadows subdivisionLot smaller than 0.5 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalElectric ovenMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (13 x 15)Second bedroom on level 1 (10 x 11)Third bedroom on level 1 (10 x 11)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heatingElectric cooling
• Interior features: Open floorplanPantryOne living areaOne dining area5 total rooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $230,990 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $230,990 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $230,990 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $230,990 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $230,990 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $230,990 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on market $230,990 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $228,990 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $228,990 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $228,990 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $228,990 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $228,990 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $228,990 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $228,990 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $238,990 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $238,990 Active 78 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $238,990 Active 76 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $238,990 Active 74 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $238,990 Active 72 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    price $238,990 Active 71 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $243,990 Active 71 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $243,990 Active 70 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $243,990 Active 68 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $243,990 Active 67 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $243,990 Active 66 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $243,990 Active 65 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $243,990 Active 64 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $243,990 Active 63 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $243,990 Active 62 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $243,990 Active 61 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $243,990 Active 60 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $243,990 Active 59 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $243,990 Active 58 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $243,990 Active 57 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $243,990 Active 56 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $243,990 Active 55 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $243,990 Active 54 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $243,990 Active 53 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $243,990 Active 52 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $243,990 Active 51 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $243,990 Active 49 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $243,990 Active 48 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $243,990 Active 47 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $243,990 Active 46 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $243,990 Active 43 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $243,990 Active 42 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $243,990 Active 41 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $243,990 Active 40 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $243,990 Active 38 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $243,990 Active 36 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,939
• − Property taxes: −$3,465
• − Insurance: −$1,155
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,720
• Taxable loss: −$3,582
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$860
• After-tax cash flow: $1,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,170–$21,510 screening

This home is in excellent condition with a fresh paint job and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Resale Replace countertops with granite or marble — Improves kitchen aesthetics and value. ↑
• Rental Install smart home features — Attracts renters with modern technology. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Willett El Middle Warren Middle D+ TX #443/1,662 Nat'l #4,335/14,009 High Forney H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility DistrictBuilder special listing condition
• HOA & community: Mandatory associationSemi-annual HOA fee ($250) with full use of facilitiesHOA managed by Neighborhood Management, Inc.

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces (approx. 19' x 20')Covered parking for 2 vehiclesDriveway
• Utilities: MUD waterMUD sewer12+ inch attic insulationThermostatWater heaterEnergy-efficient windows
• Home design: Single family residenceOne storyNew construction (2026)
• Construction: Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Lot in Maplewood Meadows subdivisionLot smaller than 0.5 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalElectric ovenMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (13 x 15)Second bedroom on level 1 (10 x 11)Third bedroom on level 1 (10 x 11)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heatingElectric cooling
• Interior features: Open floorplanPantryOne living areaOne dining area5 total rooms

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-30 Price Changed $243,990 NTREIS
• 2026-06-24 Price Changed $240,990 NTREIS
• 2026-06-16 Listed $255,990 NTREIS