1661 Old Country Road Unit #415 #415 · Calverton, NY 11901

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 50 Days on market

Built 1978 Fair condition 4,792 sqft lot $143/sqft · 42% below area Est $282k · 42% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced to sell in the sought after Glenwood Village 55+ community. This spacious manufactured home offers a fantastic opportunity for those looking to renovate and customize their living space. Great layout (2) Bedrooms, 2 full Bathrooms, a large living room/dining room, kitchen and sunroom. Monthly maintenance of $800 includes water, garbage removal, clubhouse with Gym, library, billiards room, dance hall, outdoor park and swimming pool. Conveniently located close to shopping, restaurants and so much more!

Key facts

• Clubhouse with gym
• Swimming pool
• Outdoor park

Tags

• GLENWOOD VILLAGE COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE WITH GYM
• OUTDOOR PARK
• SWIMMING POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly maintenance fee of $800; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single family residence; Living area per public records
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Kerosene heating; Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 7.2% in Calverton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,053 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.04%
• DSCR: 2.60
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,111
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -41.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 J T Blvd	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,130 (-2%)	8mo	$500,000	$442	70
1375 W Main St	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,032 (-10%)	4mo	$735,000	$712	69
152 Mill Rd	0.23mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,034 (-10%)	6mo	$630,000	$609	60
1661-31 Old Country Rd	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-4%)	21mo	$200,000	$182	60
1661-463 Old Country Rd	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	19mo	$175,000	$152	59
1661-269 Old Country Rd	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	21mo	$241,500	$229	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $61,696
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $167,729
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $1,388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,502	-5% $1,445	+0% $1,388	+5% $1,331	+10% $1,274
Rent	-10% $1,135	-5% $1,261	+0% $1,388	+5% $1,514	+10% $1,641
Rate	-1.0pp $1,471	-0.5pp $1,430	base $1,388	+0.5pp $1,345	+1.0pp $1,301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1278 W Main St Riverhead, NY	2.0	1.0	704	$3,200	$4.55	44d	1	0.06mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $165,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    listed $179,000 Active 512-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,072
• − Management: −$3,072
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $14,913
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,579
• After-tax cash flow: $13,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to its kitchen and bathrooms, along with exterior updates. The home is located in a desirable community with amenities, making it a good investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Worn and dated appearance.
• Moderate Bathroom fixtures — Dated and worn appearance.
• Minor Exterior siding — Weathered appearance.
• Minor Landscaping — Sparse and needs trimming.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Kitchen renovation — Updating the kitchen can significantly increase the home's appeal and value.
• Resale Bathroom updates — Renovating the bathrooms can enhance the home's overall appeal and functionality.
• Both Exterior painting and landscaping — Improving the exterior can boost both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn and dated appearance.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Bathroom fixtures · Dated and worn appearance.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Sparse and needs trimming.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$7,000–36,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Kitchen renovation — Updating the kitchen can significantly increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Renovating the bathrooms can enhance the home's overall appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Exterior painting and landscaping — Improving the exterior can boost both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Calverton

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #20908

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C- Employment D Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calverton, NY
• City population: 6,784
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $165,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Listed $179,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid