121 Putnam Dr · Lake Carmel, NY 10512

$475,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,256 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1950 7,841 sqft lot Est $580k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 121 Putnam Dr. , this home offers 4 Bedrooms with plenty of space and endless potential. If you are looking for a home you an truly make your own, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath property is worth a look. Full of character and possibilities, it offers a flexible layout, ample parking, a private backyard, and hardwood floors hidden beneath the existing carpeting. The main level features two bedrooms, a full bathroom, a comfortable living room, a dining room, and a kitchen ready for your personal touch. Upstairs, you'll find two additional rooms that would work perfectly as home offices, a den, playroom, craft room, or whatever suits your lifestyle. The lower level has its own separate entr

Key facts

• Separate entrance
• Private backyard
• Ample parking

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• AMPLE PARKING
• SEPARATE ENTRANCE
• PARTIALLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway and off-street parking for 5 vehicles
• Utilities: Electric service by NYSEG; Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Public trash collection; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Three or more levels
• Construction: Block construction
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom(s) on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Partially finished basement with walk-out access; Finished dormer attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer (laundry in basement)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-502 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $386k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.3% in Lake Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#650 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Carmel Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #258 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kent Primary School (math 32% / reading 72%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 366 students, 39% FRL); George Fischer Middle School (math 21% / reading 56%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 1,130 students, 38% FRL); Carmel High School (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,365 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $386,316 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $579,792
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 Putnam Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	2,294 (+2%)	2mo	$590,000	$257	95
11 Armonk Rd	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,322 (+3%)	16mo	$459,000	$198	70
37 Chappaqua Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,225 (-1%)	15mo	$550,000	$247	67
12 Ontario Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,084 (-8%)	11mo	$470,000	$226	59
15 Harvard Dr	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,118 (-6%)	8mo	$510,000	$241	56
21 Oneonta Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (-15%)	9mo	$525,000	$273	54
33 Ludingtonville Rd	0.73mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,219 (-2%)	12mo	$605,000	$273	44
10 Byram Rd	0.68mi	3/5.0 (-1)	2,100 (-7%)	4mo	$630,000	$300	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-108,526
• Equity at exit: $70,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-133,973
• Equity at exit: $41,069

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10512

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax from tax record: −$1,171 /mo · $14,048/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $-502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,885

Max offer price $386,316

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-233	-5% $-368	+0% $-502	+5% $-636	+10% $-771
Rent	-10% $-838	-5% $-670	+0% $-502	+5% $-334	+10% $-166
Rate	-1.0pp $-263	-0.5pp $-381	base $-502	+0.5pp $-625	+1.0pp $-750

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Vernon Dr Carmel, NY	3.0	2.0	2074	$4,250	$2.05	45d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $475,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $475,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $14,048 · $1,171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,048 · $1,171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$14,048
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,080
• − Management: −$4,080
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable loss: −$14,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,362
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carmel Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606570
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $87,665
• Composite: 50.05/100
• National rank: #1914
• State rank: #258 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Carmel

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #650
• US rank: #12139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Carmel, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,238

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,705 people
• By 2030: 99,650 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 98,641 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 96,348 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 94,412 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 88,728 · -11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 43.2% · R 56.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+17.8 2012: R+11.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.73%
• Current HPI: 258.8452
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $475,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,048 · +37.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.