243 Washburn Rd · Hardin, KY 42025

$174,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Other public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2005 0.77 ac lot $243/sqft · 51% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3BR, 2 BA Manufactured home sits on a permanent foundation and three-quarters of an acre. The interior of this 2200 + square foot home features sizeable rooms, a beautiful master suite with walk-in closets, along with a large transitioning kitchen/living room area. Only minutes from the lake and popular restaurants. Put this one on your list of must-sees!!

Key facts

• Master suite
• Walk-in closets
• Permanent foundation

Tags

• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• THREE-QUARTERS OF AN ACRE
• MASTER SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• MINUTES FROM THE LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($242/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Hardin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#476 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 29% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #73 of 165 in KY (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $175k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,355 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,464
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -51.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $96,485
• Equity at exit: $157,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.78×
• Total profit: $283,019
• Equity at exit: $339,792

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42025

• Home prices YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,404 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,183/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,378

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $70	+0% $20	+5% $-29	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-91	-5% $-35	+0% $20	+5% $76	+10% $131
Rate	-1.0pp $108	-0.5pp $65	base $20	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $174,900 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,900 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-04-10
    listed $174,900 Active 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    This 3BR, 2 BA Manufactured home sits on a permanent foundation and three-quarters of an acre. The interior of this 2200 + square foot home features sizeable rooms, a beautiful master suite with walk-in closets, along with a large transitioning kitchen/living room area. Only minutes from the lake and popular restaurants. Put this one on your list of must-sees!!

18. 2020-09-18
    soldstatus $83,500 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    This Kentucky Lake Area Home on Jonathan Creek has lots of Space for the Money featuring 3 Large Bedrooms, 2 Baths, Large Walk-In Closets and Custom Bath in Master. Motivated Seller! Property Sold "As-Is" but seller would consider flooring allowance at closing with accepted contract.

19. 2020-01-16
    listed $86,900 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    This Kentucky Lake Area Home on Jonathan Creek has lots of Space for the Money featuring 3 Large Bedrooms, 2 Baths, Large Walk-In Closets and Custom Bath in Master. Motivated Seller! Property Sold "As-Is" but seller would consider flooring allowance at closing with accepted contract.

20. 2019-08-05
    soldstatus $77,500
21. 2019-06-26
    listed $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,183 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,504 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$321/yr (+$27/mo · 27.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$1,183
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,347
• − Management: −$1,347
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$2,795
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$671
• After-tax cash flow: $912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall County
• NCES district ID: 2103810
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 28.62/100
• National rank: #6710
• State rank: #73 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hardin

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #23849

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,238

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,647 people
• By 2030: 30,276 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 29,232 · -4.6%
• By 2050: 27,940 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 25,289 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 21,188 · -30.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.7) · D 21.0% · R 77.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -56.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.7 2020: R+52.4 2016: R+51.9 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.11%
• Current HPI: 288.75
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+76.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $174,900 WKRMLS
• 2020-09-18 Sold (MLS) $83,500 WKRMLS
• 2020-01-16 Listed $86,900 WKRMLS
• 2019-08-05 Sold (MLS) $77,500 WKRMLS
• 2019-06-26 Listed $99,000 WKRMLS

Property tax history

-7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,183 · +41.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.