731 Tabernacle Rd · Mathews, VA 23109

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1971

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

COMING SOON!

Key facts

• Built 1971
• Listed 23 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,150; Built as a single-level structure
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; No pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Heat pump
• Interior features: Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.3% in Mathews — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mathews County Public School District (rural): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #79 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mathews Elementary (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 318 students, 68% FRL); Mathews High (math 57% / reading 87%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 310 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 34% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Mathews County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Mathews County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $120k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.62%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $19,663
• Equity at exit: $45,073

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $61,929
• Equity at exit: $63,214

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23109

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $931/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $958

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $281	-5% $247	+0% $213	+5% $179	+10% $145
Rent	-10% $116	-5% $165	+0% $213	+5% $262	+10% $310
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $244	base $213	+0.5pp $182	+1.0pp $151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Coming Soon 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Coming Soon 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Coming Soon 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Coming Soon 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Coming Soon 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Coming Soon 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Coming Soon 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Coming Soon 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Coming Soon 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Coming Soon 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Coming Soon 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Coming Soon 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-28
    historical $120,000
18. 2021-06-07
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $931 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$53/yr (+$4/mo · 5.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 55% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$931
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,179
• − Management: −$1,179
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $635
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$152
• After-tax cash flow: $2,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathews County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102430
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,875
• Composite: 46.66/100
• National rank: #2407
• State rank: #79 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mathews

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #16333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,525
• Population (ZIP): 2,525

Population outlook (Mathews County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,597 people
• By 2030: 8,385 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 7,842 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 7,315 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 7,064 · -17.8%
• By 2100: 6,858 · -20.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 12% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mathews

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+31.3 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Current HPI: 144.0053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Coming Soon $120,000 CBRAR
• 2021-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $931 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.