1208 Melrose Ave · Green Cove Springs, FL 32043

$220,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1975 9,365 sqft lot Est $267k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home with great curb appeal featuring a classic picket fence and welcoming front deck--perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or relaxing in the evening. Inside, you'll find a cozy living area with a fireplace and a functional layout designed for comfortable living. The property also includes a fenced yard, storage buildings for extra space, and a concrete driveway with ample parking. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major roadways. A wonderful opportunity for first-time homebuyers, downsizers, or investors alike.

Key facts

• Picket fence
• Front deck
• Fenced yard

Tags

• PICKET FENCE
• FRONT DECK
• FENCED YARD
• STORAGE BUILDINGS
• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• AMPLE PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: $1,874.62 annual tax

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electric connected; Water connected; Asphalt road
• Home design: Single family residence; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Concrete construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Screened porch; Porch; Fenced backyard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Unfurnished (no washer/dryer included listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($991/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.2% in Green Cove Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#245 in FL, #3,868 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 885 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $220k implies a 406% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,994 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.61%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Jack St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,180 (+0%)	1mo	$252,000	$214	67
411 Pearl St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (-3%)	5mo	$240,000	$211	63
1303 Bonaventure Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,185 (+1%)	5mo	$267,500	$226	60
4116 Audubon Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,245 (+6%)	1mo	$294,940	$237	54
20 Vermont Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,145 (-3%)	4mo	$225,000	$197	54
429 Melrose Ave	0.31mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,025 (-13%)	6mo	$199,000	$194	52
4144 Audubon Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,245 (+6%)	2mo	$294,440	$236	51
1326 Little Heron Pl	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,245 (+6%)	3mo	$284,990	$229	46
1390 Little Heron Pl	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,245 (+6%)	2mo	$286,000	$230	46
1366 Little Heron Pl	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,245 (+6%)	3mo	$283,000	$227	45
1315 Little Heron Pl	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,245 (+6%)	3mo	$295,990	$238	45
407 Green St S	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (+10%)	4mo	$270,000	$210	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-34,879
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-41,128
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 885
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,760 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $749/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,655

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4019 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4019 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	23d	1	0.48mi
806 Oak St Unit 14 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	3d	1	0.49mi
806 Oak St Unit 14 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	2d	1	0.49mi
806 Oak St Unit 10 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	3d	1	0.49mi
806 Oak St Unit 10 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	2d	1	0.49mi
4028 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4028 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	23d	1	0.50mi
4016 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4016 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	23d	1	0.50mi
410 Center St Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	23d	1	0.97mi
4028 Pine Ave Unit 1 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1304	$1,850	$1.42	2d	1	1.09mi
4019 Pine Ave Unit 1 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1304	$1,850	$1.42	2d	1	1.09mi
104 Saint Elmo Rd Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,850	$1.65	23d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 572-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $220,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $749 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,826 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,077/yr (+$90/mo · 143.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$749
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,690
• − Management: −$1,690
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$2,832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$680
• After-tax cash flow: $1,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Green Cove Springs

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #245
• US rank: #3868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Cove Springs, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 34,562
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+609.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $220,000 realMLS
• 1986-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,500 Public Records
• 1983-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $749 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.