4645 Conley St · Orlando, FL 32811

$249,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,638 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1985 7,003 sqft lot Est $303k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Investor Special – This Is a Steal! Welcome to this beautifully maintained home in the heart of Orlando! Offering a spacious layout with comfortable living areas, a functional kitchen, and generously sized bedrooms, this property is perfect for families or investors alike. The large backyard provides plenty of room for entertaining, pets, or future enhancements. Priced to move and packed with value, this home is a fantastic fix-and-flip opportunity or long-term rental hold. Featuring a brand-new roof and A/C system (only 2 months old!), the major big-ticket items are already taken care of. No electrical issues — solid bones and ready fo

Key facts

• A c system
• Functional kitchen
• Brand new roof

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• A C SYSTEM
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• MINUTES FROM MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• ACCESSIBILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-305/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 238 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,080/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 2728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $250k implies a 415% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,029 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.44%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,030
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4449 Malibu St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,466 (-10%)	0mo	$165,000	$113	64
4529 W Gore Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,439 (-12%)	20mo	$337,500	$235	54
5242 Lanette St	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,566 (-4%)	17mo	$290,000	$185	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-47,935
• Equity at exit: $37,275

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-66,327
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $69,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32811

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,080 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,044/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,112

Max offer price $245,503

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,499
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4529 W Gore Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1439	$2,549	$1.77	20d	1	0.21mi
4957 Vista Lago Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1364	$2,228	$1.63	8d	1	0.38mi
5036 College Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	24d	1	0.43mi
4995 Mercer St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,500	$1.80	3d	1	0.46mi
431 Gilman Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1146	$1,626	$1.42	14d	1	0.47mi
1343 Croyle Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1273	$1,900	$1.49	24d	1	0.64mi
5235 Florida Holly Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1107	$2,100	$1.90	24d	1	0.67mi
4655 Cepeda St Orlando, FL	3.0	1.5	1266	$1,695	$1.34	24d	1	0.68mi
1025 Clovercrest Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,100	$2.00	18d	1	0.75mi
1025 Clovercrest Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,100	$2.00	24d	1	0.75mi
5425 Wood Crossing St Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1300	$2,200	$1.69	4d	1	0.77mi
4487 Wheatley St Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1249	$1,950	$1.56	20d	1	0.81mi
4118 Minoso St Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0	1213	$1,860	$1.53	24d	1	0.85mi
4201 Cepeda St Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	24d	1	0.87mi
5300 Lescot Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,900	$1.66	24d	1	0.92mi
5377 Rosegay Ct Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1815	$2,100	$1.16	24d	1	0.92mi
1920 Willie Mays Pkwy Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1446	$2,070	$1.43	20d	1	0.94mi
1661 Gammon Ln Unit 1 Orlando, FL	4.0	3.0	1511	$2,500	$1.65	24d	1	0.99mi
1822 Horne Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0	1249	$1,600	$1.28	24d	1	1.01mi
3950 Columbia St Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,416	$1.62	24d	1	1.02mi
907 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0	1131	$1,660	$1.47	3d	14	1.05mi
2151 S Ivey Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,993	$1.85	4d	1	1.13mi
1401 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,116	$2.17	2d	32	1.21mi
464 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,375	$2.43	2d	19	1.23mi
686 Walkup Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,050	$1.46	24d	1	1.31mi
Unit 3-207 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1159	$1,600	$1.38	4d	1	1.32mi
1601 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	876	$1,980	$2.26	2d	23	1.35mi
5915 Raleigh St Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$3,204	$3.08	2d	28	1.36mi
5971 Westgate Dr #1213 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1077	$1,580	$1.47	20d	1	1.44mi
5979 Westgate Dr #1021 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,800	$1.38	15d	1	1.48mi
97 N Goldwyn Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,400	$1.57	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-04
   listed $249,995 Active
3. 1987-11-01
   soldstatus $48,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,044 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,044 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,963
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,044
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,997
• − Management: −$1,997
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,601
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,104
• After-tax cash flow: $799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orlando

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #360

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 964,969
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,475
• Household income: $54,082
• Rent vs Own: 69.9% rent · 30.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2728.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 17% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 7% Estonian 4% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.37%
• Current HPI: 284.9191
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.15%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+415.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Listed $249,995 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,044 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.