203 Dogwood Ln · Oildale, CA 93308

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $99k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2005 built Riverdale Village Manufacture home featuring great room, large kitchen with island counters, vaulted ceilings, indoor laundry, fresh paint and newer flooring, newly installed central air, wood storage shed, Park amenities include: Sparkling Pool, billiards & game center, clubhouse kitchen, clubhouse rec room, basketball and soccer area, dog pickup station & more.

Key facts

• Newer flooring
• Large kitchen
• Indoor laundry

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• ISLAND COUNTERS
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• INDOOR LAUNDRY
• NEWER FLOORING
• NEWLY INSTALLED CENTRAL AIR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot listed as 0–1 unit per acre; Living area source: assessor's data
• HOA & community: Located in Riverdale Village Mobile Home Park; Monthly land lease of $795

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Mobile home (24' x 54'); Mobile home remains on lot; Entry located on the side; Facing/entry level: 1
• Construction: Year built (from assessor)
• Exterior features: Community pool; Dog park and community park

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Side entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in a dedicated room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $645 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.9% in Oildale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#680 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, schools B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Beardsley Elementary (suburban): math 7% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #501 of 517 in CA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.69%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,216
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 Cedarwood Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-2%)	1mo	$70,000	$56	92
256 Mary Kay Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-2%)	3mo	$130,000	$104	90
131 Fernwood Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-2%)	15mo	$120,000	$96	75
4 Dogwood Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-9%)	8mo	$65,000	$56	74
159 Hickorywood Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+6%)	3mo	$99,000	$74	72
316 Nita	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+6%)	7mo	$82,500	$61	72
225 Vivian Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+13%)	9mo	$81,000	$56	69
115 Cedarwood Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+13%)	8mo	$115,000	$80	66
210 Dogwood Ln	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+13%)	8mo	$112,500	$78	65
305 Kings Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-10%)	13mo	$99,900	$88	64
156 Hickorywood Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+13%)	10mo	$115,000	$80	59
153 Hickorywood Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,375 (+8%)	15mo	$38,000	$28	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $23,638
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $68,337
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93308

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,659 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,199/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $645

Break-even live

Break-even rent $842

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $702	-5% $674	+0% $645	+5% $617	+10% $589
Rent	-10% $514	-5% $580	+0% $645	+5% $711	+10% $777
Rate	-1.0pp $696	-0.5pp $671	base $645	+0.5pp $620	+1.0pp $593

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
627 Beardsley Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	967	$1,575	$1.63	45d	1	0.28mi
627 Hood Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,795	$1.57	4d	1	0.38mi
213 Oildale Dr Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	928	$1,195	$1.29	4d	1	0.43mi
930 Olive Dr Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.5	1544	$2,250	$1.46	22d	1	0.47mi
448 S Oildale Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	4d	1	0.57mi
327 McCord Ave Unit 6 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	4d	1	0.58mi
223 McCord Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,795	$1.17	4d	1	0.73mi
222 Moneta Ave Unit 222 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,700	$1.63	4d	1	0.74mi
419 Washington Ave Unit 417 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	975	$1,500	$1.54	4d	1	0.76mi
222 Harding Ave Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	4d	1	0.78mi
901 Castaic Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1076	$1,700	$1.58	4d	1	0.81mi
1207 El Tejon Ave Unit 1 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1212	$1,950	$1.61	4d	1	0.89mi
709 Francis St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	45d	1	1.00mi
106 E Warren Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1169	$1,400	$1.20	11d	1	1.07mi
3333 El Encanto Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	990	$1,495	$1.51	4d	1	1.07mi
3333 El Encanto Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$1,595	$1.61	15d	1	1.07mi
1951 Golden State Ave Bakersfield, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1017	$1,695	$1.67	4d	2	1.20mi
411 Highland Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1051	$1,650	$1.57	4d	1	1.35mi
615 W China Grade Loop Bakersfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,850	$2.11	4d	6	1.37mi
1201 40th St Bakersfield, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,219	$1.40	4d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $99,900 Active 398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    Beautiful 2005 built Riverdale Village Manufacture home featuring great room, large kitchen with island counters, vaulted ceilings, indoor laundry, fresh paint and newer flooring, newly installed central air, wood storage shed, Park amenities include: Sparkling Pool, billiards & game center, clubhouse kitchen, clubhouse rec room, basketball and soccer area, dog pickup station & more.

16. 2022-06-22
    soldstatus $100,000 Sold 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Beautiful 2005 built Riverdale Village Manufacture home featuring great room, large kitchen with island counters, vaulted ceilings, indoor laundry, fresh paint and new flooring, central air and heating, wood storage shed, Park amenities include: Sparkling Pool, billiards & game center, clubhouse kitchen, clubhouse rec room, dog pickup station & more.

17. 2022-06-02
    status Pending 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Beautiful 2005 built Riverdale Village Manufacture home featuring great room, large kitchen with island counters, vaulted ceilings, indoor laundry, fresh paint and new flooring, central air and heating, wood storage shed, Park amenities include: Sparkling Pool, billiards & game center, clubhouse kitchen, clubhouse rec room, dog pickup station & more.

18. 2022-05-31
    listed $100,000 Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Beautiful 2005 built Riverdale Village Manufacture home featuring great room, large kitchen with island counters, vaulted ceilings, indoor laundry, fresh paint and new flooring, central air and heating, wood storage shed, Park amenities include: Sparkling Pool, billiards & game center, clubhouse kitchen, clubhouse rec room, dog pickup station & more.

19. 2019-08-15
    price $45,000
20. 2019-08-14
    soldstatus $45,000 Sold
21. 2019-08-09
    status Pending
22. 2019-08-09
    price $55,500
23. 2019-08-05
    historical Active - Contingent
24. 2019-07-13
    price $55,500
25. 2019-06-25
    listed $65,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,199 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,199 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,199
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,593
• − Management: −$1,593
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $6,525
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,566
• After-tax cash flow: $6,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beardsley Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0604260
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $28,808
• Composite: 9.63/100
• National rank: #9841
• State rank: #501 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oildale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #680
• US rank: #20848

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oildale, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 55,078
• Household income: $62,445
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2931.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 825.65
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.22%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+52.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $99,900 CRMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $99,900 GEMLS
• 2022-06-22 Sold (MLS) $100,000 GEMLS
• 2022-06-02 Pending — GEMLS
• 2022-05-31 Listed $100,000 GEMLS
• 2019-08-15 Price Changed $45,000 GEMLS
• 2019-08-14 Sold (MLS) $45,000 GEMLS
• 2019-08-09 Pending — GEMLS
• 2019-08-09 Price Changed $55,500 GEMLS
• 2019-08-05 Contingent — GEMLS
• 2019-07-13 Price Changed $55,500 GEMLS
• 2019-06-25 Listed $65,500 GEMLS

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,199 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.