12026 Shining Lake Dr · Baytown, TX 77523

$277,340

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,477 sqft · Land · 14 Days on market

Built 2026 $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jun 2026! Prepare dinner at the convenient kitchen island without missing the conversation in the adjacent great room. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and aloe backsplash, brown tone EVP flooring with multi-tone carpet. Heights of Barbers Hill offers access to A-rated schools and major employment centers in Baytown, Mont Belvieu, and the ship channel. Unwind at the planned community pool or exploring the miles of trails. Premier dining, shopping, and recreation are all just minutes from your front door. We also build each home with innovative, energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so you can afford to do more livi

Key facts

• Community pool
• Kitchen island
• Great room

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND
• GREAT ROOM
• COMMUNITY POOL
• ENERGY EFFICIENT FEATURES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association managed by First Service Residential; Annual association fee of $900; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Additional parking
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fence; Sprinkler/irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Electric oven; Microwave; Disposal; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 15x13; Bedroom (first floor) — 12x10; Bedroom (first floor) — 12x10
• Flooring: Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Pantry; Stone counters; Tub with shower; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $277,340 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $286,365.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $277k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $235,004 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.53%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,365
• List price: $277,340
• Delta: -4.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-39,011
• Equity at exit: $42,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-21,892
• Equity at exit: $24,760

Cash invested: $80,182 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,502
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $702/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,221

Max offer price $286,365

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $264	-5% $183	+0% $102	+5% $21	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-84	-5% $9	+0% $102	+5% $195	+10% $288
Rate	-1.0pp $246	-0.5pp $175	base $102	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $-48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,591
• Closing costs: $8,591
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12820 Langston Dr Mont Belvieu, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1076	$2,843	$2.64	0d	259	1.28mi
4814 Emerald Bay Cir Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,191	$1.32	23d	1	1.28mi
8017 FM 3180 Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,450	$1.34	45d	1	1.30mi
5006 Creekside Ave Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,081	$1.34	26d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $277,340 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $277,340 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $277,340 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $277,340 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $277,340 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $277,340 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $277,340 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $277,340 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on marketlisting id $277,340 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $272,340 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $272,340 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $272,340 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    price $271,340 222-char remark
15. 2026-05-01
    status Active 222-char remark
16. 2026-05-01
    price $297,340 222-char remark
17. 2026-04-24
    historical 222-char remark
18. 2026-04-22
    listed $307,340 Active 222-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $702 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,075 · $423/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,374/yr (+$364/mo · 623.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,041
• − Property taxes: −$702
• − Insurance: −$1,432
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,256
• − Management: −$2,256
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,331
• Taxable loss: −$3,716
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$892
• After-tax cash flow: $2,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Listed $277,340 HARMLS