211 Dugan St N · Welcome, MN 56181

$35,250

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1900 0.32 ac lot $17/sqft · 80% below area ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3BR/2BA turn-of-the-century home on a rare double lot (0.321 acres, 100x140) in Welcome, MN. Loaded with character: original open staircase, wide-plank hardwood floors, tall sunlit windows, and oak kitchen cabinetry. Upstairs was previously a 2BR apartment, convertible back for up to 3 bedrooms or rental income. . Quiet street with sidewalks, Priced to reflect needed updates: full bath remodel, kitchen refresh, flooring

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Open staircase
• Double lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• OPEN STAIRCASE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• SUNLIT WINDOWS
• OAK KITCHEN CABINETRY
• QUIET STREET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tax information available (annual tax shown separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: City water (connected); Sewer: none; Other fuel
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels; Entry level: Main; Above-grade finished living area 2,120; Below-grade area 920; Total building area 3,040; Foundation with other details
• Construction: Foundation area 2,120; Lot about 0.32 acres (approx. 100 x 140)
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room on the main level; Basement (other features)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $727 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#658 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, schools F.
• Martin County West School District (rural): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #187 of 301 in MN (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($244 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Martin County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $34,192 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.37%
• DSCR: 4.93
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,560
• List price: $35,250
• Delta: -79.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 97.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.51×
• Total profit: $64,268
• Equity at exit: $30,428

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.7%
• Equity multiple: 16.46×
• Total profit: $152,610
• Equity at exit: $64,255

Cash invested: $9,870 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56181

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$185
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $684/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $727

Break-even live

Break-even rent $325

Max offer price $35,250

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,812
• Closing costs: $1,058
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,250 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,250 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,250 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,250 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $35,250 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,250 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,250 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,250 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $35,250 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $35,250 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,250 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,250 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,250 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,250 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $43,000 Active 433-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $684 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $684 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,975
• − Property taxes: −$684
• − Insurance: −$176
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,195
• − Management: −$1,195
• − Depreciation: −$1,025
• Taxable income: $8,687
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,085
• After-tax cash flow: $6,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin County West School District
• NCES district ID: 2718960
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $48,825
• Composite: 37.66/100
• National rank: #4369
• State rank: #187 of 301 in MN

Livability — Welcome

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #658
• US rank: #15775

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Welcome, MN
• Population (ZIP): 1,303

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,583 people
• By 2030: 17,814 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 16,312 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 15,021 · -19.2%
• By 2075: 13,025 · -29.9%
• By 2100: 11,311 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 10% Portuguese 10% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.5% · R 69.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.2pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.9 2016: R+41.4 2012: R+23.8 2008: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.48%
• Current HPI: 253.1194
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-18.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $35,250 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $38,250 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $43,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $684 · +46.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.