8446 Bamfield Rd · South Branch, MI 48761

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 103 Days on market

Built 1954 1.00 ac lot $82/sqft · 17% below area Est $109k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This country cutie is tucked in amongst some mighty maple trees! Many updates have been done on this 2 bed, one bathroom home. From the roof to the furnace & so much more in between, this home is waiting for someone to add their own finishing touches to make it complete! With a little more luvin', this would be a wonderful full-time home or up-north retreat. Walk through the front door to be greeted by a beautiful fieldstone fireplace that was converted to gas. Nice to warm up by without the mess of dragging wood through the house! There is a 'whatever-you-want' room off the dining area that could be used as a den or office or even for overflow guests. Located near the AuSable River & thousands of acres of the Huron National Forest, there is something for every outdoor enthusiast!

Key facts

• Converted to gas
• Fieldstone fireplace
• Near ausable river

Tags

• FIELDSTONE FIREPLACE
• CONVERTED TO GAS
• NEAR AUSABLE RIVER
• HURON NATIONAL FOREST

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($974 rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Oscoda Area Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #313 of 540 in MI (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Alcona County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $487 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Alcona County population projected at -37% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $90k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.93%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,703
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -17.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8105 Bamfield Rd	0.15mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (+7%)	10mo	$181,000	$154	68
3059 Rose St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,060 (-4%)	3mo	$162,000	$153	64
3042 Brodie Rd	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,176 (+7%)	12mo	$175,000	$149	60
8331 Wissmiller Rd	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (+7%)	16mo	$245,000	$208	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $14,271
• Equity at exit: $28,595

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $45,598
• Equity at exit: $36,405

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48761

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $974 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $368/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $684

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $281	-5% $255	+0% $230	+5% $204	+10% $179
Rent	-10% $153	-5% $191	+0% $230	+5% $268	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $275	-0.5pp $253	base $230	+0.5pp $206	+1.0pp $183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $90,000 Pending 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $90,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-04-13
    price $90,000 803-char remark

    Show marketing remark (803 chars)

    This country cutie is tucked in amongst some mighty maple trees! Many updates have been done on this 2 bed, one bathroom home. From the roof to the furnace & so much more in between, this home is waiting for someone to add their own finishing touches to make it complete! With a little more luvin', this would be a wonderful full-time home or up-north retreat. Walk through the front door to be greeted by a beautiful fieldstone fireplace that was converted to gas. Nice to warm up by without the mess of dragging wood through the house! There is a 'whatever-you-want' room off the dining area that could be used as a den or office or even for overflow guests. Located near the AuSable River & thousands of acres of the Huron National Forest, there is something for every outdoor enthusiast!

15. 2026-03-02
    listed $110,000 Active 803-char remark

    Show marketing remark (803 chars)

    This country cutie is tucked in amongst some mighty maple trees! Many updates have been done on this 2 bed, one bathroom home. From the roof to the furnace & so much more in between, this home is waiting for someone to add their own finishing touches to make it complete! With a little more luvin', this would be a wonderful full-time home or up-north retreat. Walk through the front door to be greeted by a beautiful fieldstone fireplace that was converted to gas. Nice to warm up by without the mess of dragging wood through the house! There is a 'whatever-you-want' room off the dining area that could be used as a den or office or even for overflow guests. Located near the AuSable River & thousands of acres of the Huron National Forest, there is something for every outdoor enthusiast!

16. 2026-02-16
    historical
17. 2026-02-14
    historical
18. 2025-09-20
    price $120,000
19. 2025-09-19
    price $120,000
20. 2025-08-16
    price $135,000
21. 2025-08-15
    price $135,000
22. 2025-06-25
    price $145,000
23. 2025-06-24
    price $145,000
24. 2025-06-03
    listed $150,000 Active
25. 2025-06-02
    listed $150,000 Active
26. 2015-12-20
    historical
27. 2015-12-20
    historical
28. 2015-06-20
    listed $60,000
29. 2015-06-20
    listed $60,000
30. 2015-05-01
    historical
31. 2015-05-01
    historical
32. 2014-05-08
    listed $65,000
33. 2014-05-08
    listed $65,000
34. 2007-11-26
    soldstatus $56,650
35. 2004-10-16
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $368 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $877 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$509/yr (+$42/mo · 138.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$368
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$935
• − Management: −$935
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $1,344
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$323
• After-tax cash flow: $2,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oscoda Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2626970
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,275
• Composite: 28.6/100
• National rank: #6714
• State rank: #313 of 540 in MI

Livability — South Branch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 804

Population outlook (Alcona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,071 people
• By 2030: 8,331 · -8.2%
• By 2040: 6,852 · -24.5%
• By 2050: 5,691 · -37.3%
• By 2075: 4,229 · -53.4%
• By 2100: 3,149 · -65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Romanian 13% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alcona

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.7) · D 28.6% · R 70.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.8pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -41.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.7 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Current HPI: 176.0313
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+63.6% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $90,000 WWMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $110,000 WWMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $120,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $120,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $135,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $145,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $145,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-03 Listed $150,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-02 Listed $150,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-12-20 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2015-12-20 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-06-20 Listed $60,000 REALCOMP
• 2015-06-20 Listed $60,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-05-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2015-05-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-05-08 Listed $65,000 REALCOMP
• 2014-05-08 Listed $65,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $56,650 Public Records
• 2004-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $368 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.