212 Aley Hill Rd · Big Beaver, PA 15010

$122,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 104 Days on market

Built 2002 0.48 ac lot $84/sqft · 34% below area Est $187k · 34% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two and a half bath home. Mobile home will also convey. Take a drive by and see if this may be you next investment.

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• Built 2002
• Listed 104 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $123k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#911 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Big Beaver Falls Area SD (suburban): math 16% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #467 of 539 in PA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 272 units permitted in Beaver County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $849 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Beaver County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $1k; list at $123k implies a 10634% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $111,748 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.29%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,636
• List price: $122,800
• Delta: -34.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-10,155
• Equity at exit: $18,310

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $3,968
• Equity at exit: $10,617

Cash invested: $34,384 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15010

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,240 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$644
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,595/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,048

Max offer price $122,800

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,700
• Closing costs: $3,684
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4727 5th Ave Beaver Falls, PA	2.0	1.0	1136	$950	$0.84	1d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $122,800 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $122,800 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $122,800 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $122,800 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $122,800 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $122,800 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $122,800 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $122,800 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $122,800 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $122,800 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $122,800 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $122,800 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $122,800 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $122,800 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    soldstatus $1,144
16. 2026-03-06
    listed $122,800 Active 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two and a half bath home. Mobile home will also convey. Take a drive by and see if this may be you next investment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,595 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,768 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$173/yr (+$14/mo · 10.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,879
• − Property taxes: −$1,595
• − Insurance: −$614
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,190
• − Management: −$1,190
• − Depreciation: −$3,572
• Taxable loss: −$161
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$39
• After-tax cash flow: $1,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Beaver Falls Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4203630
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $35,686
• Composite: 21.85/100
• National rank: #8241
• State rank: #467 of 539 in PA

Livability — Big Beaver

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #9869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Beaver, PA
• County: Beaver County · 116,001 people
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,542
• Household income: $71,200
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 519.0

Population outlook (Beaver County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,976 people
• By 2030: 161,449 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 151,752 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 141,155 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 118,142 · -28.4%
• By 2100: 91,740 · -44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 9% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Beaver

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+17.7 2016: R+20.1 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+2.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.25%
• Current HPI: 261.2703
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.07%
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $1,144 Public Records
• 2026-03-06 Listed $122,800 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,595 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.