22278 Misty Woods Way · Watergate, FL 33428

$395,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1985 $270/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HOME SWEET HOME!!! This 3/2 is ideally located in sought-after Timberwalk 2. Zoned with all amazing A+ schools for any family... this home is a must see. There are several major upgrades such as the HVAC installed in 2021 along with water heater 2017. There are some features that are left original so you can renovate and make it your own. Huge screened in porch for relaxing and entertaining. This Home Will Not Last!

Key facts

• Low hoa fees
• Loggers run middle
• West boca high

Tags

• TIMBERWALK II COMMUNITY
• LOW HOA FEES
• A RATED SCHOOL DISTRICT
• WATERS EDGE ELEMENTARY
• LOGGERS RUN MIDDLE
• WEST BOCA HIGH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association pool
• Financial info: Lease considered; Pets allowed with restrictions or possible restrictions (conditional)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $270; Association amenities include pool(s), basketball court, playground, trails, barbecue and picnic areas, and recreation facilities; Association fee covers management, common areas, grounds maintenance, pool(s), amenities, reserve fund, and security; Community with 220 units

Exterior

• Parking: Two or more parking spaces
• Security: Security guard
• Utilities: Cable available; Public utilities (water/sewer/power not specifically listed)
• Home design: One-story property; Entry on main level; Faces west; Updated/remodeled; Attached property
• Construction: Stucco construction; Effective year built
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Fence; Patio; Screened porch/patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level; Storage room
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Dual sinks; Family/dining room; First-floor entry; Split bedrooms; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-619/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $361k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $361k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#585 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,607/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 1990% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($371k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 13089% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $320k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $360,736 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.56%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-64,503
• Equity at exit: $58,896

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-48,792
• Equity at exit: $34,152

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33428

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,607 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,745/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$270
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$758
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,673

Max offer price $385,882

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $172	-5% $60	+0% $-52	+5% $-163	+10% $-275
Rent	-10% $-337	-5% $-194	+0% $-52	+5% $91	+10% $233
Rate	-1.0pp $147	-0.5pp $49	base $-52	+0.5pp $-154	+1.0pp $-258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22384 Thousand Pines Ln Boca Raton, FL	4.0	3.0	1442	$4,900	$3.40	8d	1	0.23mi
22384 Thousand Pines Ln Boca Raton, FL	4.0	3.0	1442	$4,900	$3.40	17d	1	0.23mi
22541 Vistawood Way Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,750	$2.29	25d	1	0.28mi
11750 Timbers Way Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,150	$2.62	25d	1	0.41mi
22592 Lombard Ave Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	1369	$4,100	$2.99	2d	1	0.59mi
22592 Lombard Ave Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	1369	$4,100	$2.99	25d	1	0.59mi
22525 Swordfish Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$4,500	$3.08	15d	1	0.63mi
11143 Model Cir E Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1116	$3,350	$3.00	25d	1	0.68mi
10884 Gantry St Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	1356	$4,200	$3.10	5d	1	0.68mi
22750 Pickerel Cir Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$3,500	$2.53	25d	1	0.69mi
4784 Alfresco St Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	1343	$3,950	$2.94	25d	1	0.80mi
11942 N Branch Rd Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,950	$2.17	25d	1	0.88mi
22776 Neptune Rd Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$2,900	$2.25	25d	1	0.94mi
4538 Albedo St Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1146	$3,400	$2.97	20d	1	0.98mi
11992 Coral Pl Boca Raton, FL	2.0	1.5	720	$2,000	$2.78	25d	1	1.00mi
11887 Anchorage Way Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,900	$1.98	25d	1	1.01mi
22974 Seaspray Pl Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,200	$2.04	13d	1	1.17mi
10457 S 228th Ln Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,900	$1.72	8d	1	1.27mi
10180 Fanfare Dr Unit 10180 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$3,800	$3.00	2d	1	1.37mi
10180 Fanfare Dr Unit 10180 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$3,800	$3.00	3d	1	1.37mi
10323 Boca Bnd W Unit K4 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$2,500	$2.34	0d	1	1.45mi
22062 Acapulco Ct Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1184	$3,650	$3.08	25d	1	1.45mi
10267 Boca Bnd W Unit G4 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$2,850	$2.67	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $270 · $3,240/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   historical $2,995
3. 2026-04-21
   listed $2,995
4. 2026-04-14
   price $395,000
5. 2026-03-24
   price $399,995
6. 2026-03-02
   listed $405,000 Active
7. 2022-12-14
   historical
8. 2021-11-18
   soldstatus $320,000
9. 2021-11-11
   soldstatus $320,000 Closed 420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (420 chars)

   HOME SWEET HOME!!! This 3/2 is ideally located in sought-after Timberwalk 2. Zoned with all amazing A+ schools for any family... this home is a must see. There are several major upgrades such as the HVAC installed in 2021 along with water heater 2017. There are some features that are left original so you can renovate and make it your own. Huge screened in porch for relaxing and entertaining. This Home Will Not Last!

10. 2021-09-12
    status Pending 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    HOME SWEET HOME!!! This 3/2 is ideally located in sought-after Timberwalk 2. Zoned with all amazing A+ schools for any family... this home is a must see. There are several major upgrades such as the HVAC installed in 2021 along with water heater 2017. There are some features that are left original so you can renovate and make it your own. Huge screened in porch for relaxing and entertaining. This Home Will Not Last!

11. 2021-09-10
    status Active 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    HOME SWEET HOME!!! This 3/2 is ideally located in sought-after Timberwalk 2. Zoned with all amazing A+ schools for any family... this home is a must see. There are several major upgrades such as the HVAC installed in 2021 along with water heater 2017. There are some features that are left original so you can renovate and make it your own. Huge screened in porch for relaxing and entertaining. This Home Will Not Last!

12. 2021-09-07
    status Pending 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    HOME SWEET HOME!!! This 3/2 is ideally located in sought-after Timberwalk 2. Zoned with all amazing A+ schools for any family... this home is a must see. There are several major upgrades such as the HVAC installed in 2021 along with water heater 2017. There are some features that are left original so you can renovate and make it your own. Huge screened in porch for relaxing and entertaining. This Home Will Not Last!

13. 2021-09-02
    status Active 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    HOME SWEET HOME!!! This 3/2 is ideally located in sought-after Timberwalk 2. Zoned with all amazing A+ schools for any family... this home is a must see. There are several major upgrades such as the HVAC installed in 2021 along with water heater 2017. There are some features that are left original so you can renovate and make it your own. Huge screened in porch for relaxing and entertaining. This Home Will Not Last!

14. 2021-08-19
    status Pending 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    HOME SWEET HOME!!! This 3/2 is ideally located in sought-after Timberwalk 2. Zoned with all amazing A+ schools for any family... this home is a must see. There are several major upgrades such as the HVAC installed in 2021 along with water heater 2017. There are some features that are left original so you can renovate and make it your own. Huge screened in porch for relaxing and entertaining. This Home Will Not Last!

15. 2021-08-14
    listed $319,000 Active 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    HOME SWEET HOME!!! This 3/2 is ideally located in sought-after Timberwalk 2. Zoned with all amazing A+ schools for any family... this home is a must see. There are several major upgrades such as the HVAC installed in 2021 along with water heater 2017. There are some features that are left original so you can renovate and make it your own. Huge screened in porch for relaxing and entertaining. This Home Will Not Last!

16. 2015-03-31
    historical
17. 2015-03-30
    listed $184,500 Active
18. 1988-12-30
    soldstatus $69,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,745 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,745 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$4,745
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,463
• − Management: −$3,463
• − HOA: −$3,240
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$7,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,732
• After-tax cash flow: $1,112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Watergate

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #585
• US rank: #11201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,588
• Household income: $88,543
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1990.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Two or more races 23% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 12% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -299.00%
• Current HPI: 373.2649
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-95.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Pending — MARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Rental Removed $2,995 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-21 Listed for Rent $2,995 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $395,000 MARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $399,995 MARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $405,000 MARMLS
• 2022-12-14 Rental Removed — RMLSFL
• 2021-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-11 Sold (MLS) $320,000 Beaches MLS
• 2021-09-12 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2021-09-10 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2021-09-07 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2021-09-02 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2021-08-19 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2021-08-14 Listed $319,000 Beaches MLS
• 2015-03-31 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2015-03-30 Listed $184,500 Beaches MLS
• 1988-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,745 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.