975 Route 83 · Pine Plains, NY 12567

$300,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1972 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This cape is surrounded by west facing rolling hills, all in the Dutchess Land Conservancy. Idyllic and pastoral views abound. The home has a newer roof, electric heat, and a Generac genator. The interior is in need of total renovation. Three sheds are included and have been newly roofed. This is a pefect fixer for the cash buyer with vision. True Cape Cod style home.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.6% in Pine Plains — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#746 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine Plains Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #372 of 755 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cold Spring Early Learning Center (165 students, 12% FRL); Stissing Mountain Junior/Senior High School (math 92% / reading 75%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 460 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 84% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+31 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pine Plains Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $300k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $276,647 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $157,518
• Equity at exit: $270,264

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.58×
• Total profit: $468,950
• Equity at exit: $582,834

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12567

• Home prices YoY: 18.7%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,766 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$582 /mo · $6,985/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,886

Max offer price $283,251

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $-10	+0% $-95	+5% $-180	+10% $-265
Rent	-10% $-313	-5% $-204	+0% $-95	+5% $14	+10% $124
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $-19	base $-95	+0.5pp $-173	+1.0pp $-252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   remarks 370-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-06
   price $300,000
4. 2026-03-31
   listed $3,000,000 Active
5. 2000-01-19
   soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,985 · $582/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,985 · $582/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$6,985
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,656
• − Management: −$2,656
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,131
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,471
• After-tax cash flow: $334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Plains Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623040
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,189
• Composite: 48.33/100
• National rank: #4688
• State rank: #372 of 755 in NY

Livability — Pine Plains

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #746
• US rank: #14240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,498
• Population (ZIP): 2,498

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Pacific Islander 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.77%
• Current HPI: 322.2342
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+500.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $3,000,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,985 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.