10828 Johns Bayou Cir · Vancleave, MS 39565

$59,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1955 5,662 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unlock the potential of this 1,080 sq. ft. fixer-upper in Vancleave! Currently configured as a 2-bedroom, 1-bath home, the existing layout offers an easy opportunity to add a third bedroom, creating even more value and flexibility. Much of the heavy lifting has already begun—this home has been taken down to the studs, with some new sheetrock already installed, providing a head start on your renovation plans. Situated on short piers with a solid foundation, this property is ready for the right investor, flipper, or buyer looking to build instant equity. Whether you're searching for your next investment project or envisioning a personalized starter home, this property offers endless pos

Key facts

• Solid foundation
• 5,662 sq ft lot
• Built 1955

Tags

• NEW SHEETROCK INSTALLED
• SOLID FOUNDATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property listed as a fixer

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family house; One level
• Construction: Siding exterior; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built area approximately 1,080 (per public records)
• Exterior features: See remarks for additional exterior details

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating details provided in remarks; Cooling details provided in remarks
• Interior features: Fixer condition; Appliances and some interior details available in the remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $866 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $59k).
• Cap rate 23.9% vs local median 2.9% in Vancleave — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#34 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 194 active listings in the ZIP; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.89%
• DSCR: 3.80
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10201 Johns Bayou Rd	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,188 (+10%)	18mo	$148,000	$125	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $45,592
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.70×
• Total profit: $110,741
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39565

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,580 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $580/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $866

Break-even live

Break-even rent $484

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $899	-5% $883	+0% $866	+5% $849	+10% $832
Rent	-10% $741	-5% $803	+0% $866	+5% $928	+10% $991
Rate	-1.0pp $896	-0.5pp $881	base $866	+0.5pp $851	+1.0pp $835

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $59,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $580 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $580 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$580
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,517
• − Management: −$1,517
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $10,029
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,407
• After-tax cash flow: $7,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802160
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,569
• Composite: 43.57/100
• National rank: #2980
• State rank: #10 of 130 in MS

Livability — Vancleave

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #7039

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vancleave, MS
• Population (ZIP): 20,692

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.68%
• Current HPI: 187.1025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $59,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+20.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $580 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.