431 Elm St · Phoenix, OR 97535

$600,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,456 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1965 9,147 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Incredible Investment Property, never a better time as vacancy rates continue at less than 1% and interest rates are still at historic lows. 3456 Sq. Ft. 4 plex in charming Phoenix, OR. A number of long term tenants. This updated 4-plex is on a hill in an area of predominantly private homes. All units have a balcony with views and also a separate locked and lighted storage room, varying from 60 to 90 square feet. Solid rental history. Owner has done many updates with newer paint, carpet in units.

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Scenic views
• Fresh exterior paint

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• SCENIC VIEWS
• LOCKED STORAGE ROOM
• DEDICATED PARKING
• NEW ROOF
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Four-unit income property with individual unit rents (example rents provided in listing data)
• HOA & community: CCRs apply

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking lot (no garage); 4 additional parking spaces
• Security: Carbon monoxide detectors; Smoke detectors; No audio or video surveillance on premises
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Energy Star qualified double-pane windows; aluminum and vinyl frames
• Home design: Residential income property; Quadruplex; Two levels; Built in 1965; R1 zoning
• Construction: Brick, concrete, and frame construction; Stemwall foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Fenced lot; Sloped lot; Shed(s); Paved road access; Shared access frontage; Flood designation: N/A

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Water heater
• Bedrooms: Four 2-bedroom units (each unit is 2 bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 1 full bath
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Electric, Forced air, Radiant, Wall furnace; Cooling: Wall/window units; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Linen closet; Open floor plan; Shower/tub combo; Tile countertops; Tile shower; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Separate electric meters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $600k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.7% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#38 in OR, #884 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Phoenix-Talent SD 4 (suburban): math 14% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #58 of 58 in OR (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Phoenix Elementary School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #392 of 412 statewide, top 96%, 300 students, 87% FRL); Talent Middle School (math 10% / reading 33%, grade F, #122 of 128 statewide, top 95%, 473 students, 79% FRL); Phoenix High School (math 24% / reading 70%, grade D-, #56 of 143 statewide, top 41%, 700 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $329k; list at $600k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $600,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.01%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-16,982
• Equity at exit: $89,462

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $88,235
• Equity at exit: $51,877

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97535

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 31.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,421 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$415 /mo · $4,974/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,348
• Net cashflow: $1,262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,824

Max offer price $600,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,601	-5% $1,431	+0% $1,262	+5% $1,092	+10% $922
Rent	-10% $754	-5% $1,008	+0% $1,262	+5% $1,515	+10% $1,769
Rate	-1.0pp $1,564	-0.5pp $1,414	base $1,262	+0.5pp $1,106	+1.0pp $948

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1	$6,420
Total (4 units)			$6,421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $600,000 Active
3. 2015-11-02
   soldstatus $329,000 501-char remark

   Show marketing remark (501 chars)

   Incredible Investment Property, never a better time as vacancy rates continue at less than 1% and interest rates are still at historic lows. 3456 Sq. Ft. 4 plex in charming Phoenix, OR. A number of long term tenants. This updated 4-plex is on a hill in an area of predominantly private homes. All units have a balcony with views and also a separate locked and lighted storage room, varying from 60 to 90 square feet. Solid rental history. Owner has done many updates with newer paint, carpet in units.

4. 2015-10-30
   soldstatus $329,000
5. 2015-08-07
   listed $354,900 501-char remark

   Show marketing remark (501 chars)

   Incredible Investment Property, never a better time as vacancy rates continue at less than 1% and interest rates are still at historic lows. 3456 Sq. Ft. 4 plex in charming Phoenix, OR. A number of long term tenants. This updated 4-plex is on a hill in an area of predominantly private homes. All units have a balcony with views and also a separate locked and lighted storage room, varying from 60 to 90 square feet. Solid rental history. Owner has done many updates with newer paint, carpet in units.

6. 2015-05-06
   historical
7. 2015-04-02
   listed $395,000
8. 2013-02-20
   soldstatus $200,000
9. 2013-02-20
   soldstatus $200,000
10. 2012-07-28
    listed $220,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,974 · $415/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,820 · $485/mo
• Expected delta: +$846/yr (+$70/mo · 17.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $77,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$4,974
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,164
• − Management: −$6,164
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable income: $5,686
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,365
• After-tax cash flow: $13,775/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix-Talent SD 4
• NCES district ID: 4109630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $38,625
• Composite: 19.24/100
• National rank: #8809
• State rank: #58 of 58 in OR

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #884

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment D+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, OR
• City population: 4,766
• Population (ZIP): 4,766

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.62%
• Current HPI: 262.1708
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+172.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-04-24 Listed $600,000 MLSCO
• 2015-11-02 Sold (MLS) $329,000 MLSCO
• 2015-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $329,000 Public Records
• 2015-08-07 Listed $354,900 MLSCO
• 2015-05-06 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2015-04-02 Listed $395,000 MLSCO
• 2013-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2013-02-20 Sold (MLS) $200,000 MLSCO
• 2012-07-28 Listed $220,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,974 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.