831 Lexington Ln · Nevada, TX 75173

$314,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,089 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2024 9,017 sqft lot Est $466k · 33% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home built in 2024 in the growing Liberty Ranch community of Josephine. This open-concept floor plan features granite countertops, a large kitchen island, walk-in pantry, abundant natural light, and spacious bedrooms with walk-in closets. The primary suite offers a private bath with separate shower and walk-in closet. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer are included. Recent upgrades include a garage door opener and 6-inch gutters with downspouts. Located in Community ISD with convenient access to McKinney, Princeton, and Greenville. Don't miss this opportunity to own a newer home in one of Collin County's fastest-growing areas. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Home office setup
• Open-concept layout
• 9,017 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD
• HOME OFFICE SETUP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Soil type: Black; Lot features: Less than 0.5 acre (approx. 0.207 acres); Parcel number: R1321600F03501; Restrictions: None
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual association fee of $500; Association covers grounds maintenance; HOA managed by vission communities (972-612-2303)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage (approximately 20' x 20'); 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Residential property; Built in 2024; Subdivision: Liberty Ranch
• Construction: New construction (2024)
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on level 2 with walk-in closet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Granite counters; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry; High-speed internet available
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $314k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 1.9% in Nevada — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#881 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nesmith El (math 46% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,097 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 768 students, 44% FRL); Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $211,205 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $465,847
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
706 Republic Row	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,374 (+14%)	23mo	$479,000	$202	44
703 Lexington Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,374 (+14%)	24mo	$560,000	$236	41
804 Republic Row	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,374 (+14%)	23mo	$529,000	$223	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $147,616
• Equity at exit: $282,876

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $452,961
• Equity at exit: $610,033

Cash invested: $87,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,647
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,587/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,576

Max offer price $249,247

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-189	-5% $-278	+0% $-367	+5% $-455	+10% $-544
Rent	-10% $-533	-5% $-450	+0% $-367	+5% $-283	+10% $-200
Rate	-1.0pp $-208	-0.5pp $-287	base $-367	+0.5pp $-448	+1.0pp $-531

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,500
• Closing costs: $9,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
831 Lexington Ln Nevada, TX	4.0	2.5	2089	$2,095	$1.00	14d	1	0.02mi
1213 Bristlecone DR Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,900	$1.15	8d	1	0.95mi
422 E FM 6 Nevada, TX	5.0	2.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	45d	1	1.35mi
450 Collin St Nevada, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,000	$1.27	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $314,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $314,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $314,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $314,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 694-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $314,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 674-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   listed $314,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,587 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,746 · $479/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,159/yr (+$263/mo · 122.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,589
• − Property taxes: −$2,587
• − Insurance: −$1,570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,028
• − Management: −$2,028
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$9,135
• Taxable loss: −$10,095
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,423
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nevada

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #881
• US rank: #15880

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+14852.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-06-11 Listed $314,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-25 Price Changed $2,095 NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listed for Rent $2,195 NTREIS
• 2025-05-27 Rental Removed $2,100 NTREIS
• 2025-03-07 Listed for Rent $2,100 NTREIS

Property tax history

+153.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,587 · +153.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.