4537 Grand Oaks Dr · Willis, TX 77378

$249,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2000 1.01 ac lot $139/sqft · at area comps Est $251k · at est. $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 4537 Grand Oaks Dr in Willis, TX — a fully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home on just over 1 acre of unrestricted land. This property has been extensively renovated, featuring a new roof, fresh interior and exterior paint, granite countertops, updated kitchen backsplash, and new appliances. The home offers waterproof flooring throughout (no carpet), along with new ceiling fans, modern lighting, and a clean, cohesive finish. Both bathrooms have been completely remodeled, and the home includes spacious front and rear porches, ideal for enjoying the privacy and quiet of country living. With no restrictions, there’s plenty of flexibility for additional structures, parking, or personal use. A rare opportunity to own a move-in ready manufactured home with this level of upgrades and land.

Key facts

• Waterproof flooring
• New appliances
• 1.01 acre lot

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN BACKSPLASH
• NEW APPLIANCES
• WATERPROOF FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($480/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C C Hardy El (math 32% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 752 students, 83% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 721 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,831 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.69%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,500
• List price: $249,999
• Delta: -0.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4537 Grand Oaks Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,800 (0%)	1mo	$249,999	$139	99
14604 Hasara Ln	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,792 (-0%)	3mo	$253,000	$141	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-42,180
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-50,068
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,178/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,048

Max offer price $249,999

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $111	+0% $40	+5% $-31	+10% $-102
Rent	-10% $-126	-5% $-43	+0% $40	+5% $123	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $166	-0.5pp $104	base $40	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-91

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14107 Running Bear Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1328	$1,800	$1.36	26d	1	0.62mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 828-char remark

   Show marketing remark (828 chars)

   Welcome to 4537 Grand Oaks Dr in Willis, TX — a fully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home on just over 1 acre of unrestricted land. This property has been extensively renovated, featuring a new roof, fresh interior and exterior paint, granite countertops, updated kitchen backsplash, and new appliances. The home offers waterproof flooring throughout (no carpet), along with new ceiling fans, modern lighting, and a clean, cohesive finish. Both bathrooms have been completely remodeled, and the home includes spacious front and rear porches, ideal for enjoying the privacy and quiet of country living. With no restrictions, there’s plenty of flexibility for additional structures, parking, or personal use. A rare opportunity to own a move-in ready manufactured home with this level of upgrades and land.

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $249,999 Active 828-char remark

   Show marketing remark (828 chars)

   Welcome to 4537 Grand Oaks Dr in Willis, TX — a fully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home on just over 1 acre of unrestricted land. This property has been extensively renovated, featuring a new roof, fresh interior and exterior paint, granite countertops, updated kitchen backsplash, and new appliances. The home offers waterproof flooring throughout (no carpet), along with new ceiling fans, modern lighting, and a clean, cohesive finish. Both bathrooms have been completely remodeled, and the home includes spacious front and rear porches, ideal for enjoying the privacy and quiet of country living. With no restrictions, there’s plenty of flexibility for additional structures, parking, or personal use. A rare opportunity to own a move-in ready manufactured home with this level of upgrades and land.

3. 2026-03-20
   soldstatus
4. 2002-05-22
   soldstatus
5. 2000-10-16
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,178 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,397/yr (+$200/mo · 110.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,178
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$3,805
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$913
• After-tax cash flow: $1,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $249,999 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-10-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,178 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.