1543 Gardenia Grove Ln · Houston, TX 77532

$164,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · Townhouse · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $192/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Designed for convenient and modern living, this new single-story home features a breezy and open layout. The foyer leads to a peninsula-style kitchen overlooking the dining area and family room, with a rear door extending to the backyard. Throughout the home are two secondary bedrooms and a tranquil owner's suite with an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet. A versatile two-car garage completes this floorplan.

Key facts

• Dining area
• Backyard
• Family room

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• FAMILY ROOM
• BACKYARD
• OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $165k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $164,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.72%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-17,913
• Equity at exit: $24,601

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-11,602
• Equity at exit: $14,265

Cash invested: $46,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,916 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,686

Max offer price $164,990

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $296	-5% $239	+0% $182	+5% $125	+10% $68
Rent	-10% $30	-5% $106	+0% $182	+5% $257	+10% $333
Rate	-1.0pp $265	-0.5pp $224	base $182	+0.5pp $139	+1.0pp $95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,248
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1519 Gardenia Grove Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	26d	1	0.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $164,990 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,990 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $164,990 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $164,990 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $164,990 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-05-05
   price $179,990 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   Designed for convenient and modern living, this new single-story home features a breezy and open layout. The foyer leads to a peninsula-style kitchen overlooking the dining area and family room, with a rear door extending to the backyard. Throughout the home are two secondary bedrooms and a tranquil owner's suite with an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet. A versatile two-car garage completes this floorplan.

7. 2026-05-02
   listed $234,990 Active 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   Designed for convenient and modern living, this new single-story home features a breezy and open layout. The foyer leads to a peninsula-style kitchen overlooking the dining area and family room, with a rear door extending to the backyard. Throughout the home are two secondary bedrooms and a tranquil owner's suite with an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet. A versatile two-car garage completes this floorplan.

8. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
9. 2026-04-07
   price $279,990
10. 2026-04-01
    price $199,240
11. 2026-02-11
    listed $224,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,242
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$331
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$79
• After-tax cash flow: $2,258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This newly constructed townhouse is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for both resale and rental with potential for minor updates to enhance curb appeal and modernize the kitchen.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and updating the landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick and updating the landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $179,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-02 Listed $234,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $199,240 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $224,990 HARMLS