133 Armstrong Rd · Rochester, NY 14616

$174,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1960 6,098 sqft lot Est $223k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in a quiet, tree-lined neighborhood, this beautifully maintained, 2 bed, 1 bath is inviting and is ready to offer you the perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. Step inside and immediately feel the warmth of the spacious, light-filled living room complete with a fireplace—perfect for family gatherings or a cozy night in. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living and dining areas, making it easy to entertain. Enjoy a modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances, providing both functionality and style. Ample cabinetry and counter space ensure you have all the room you need to prepare your favorite meals. Sliding glass doors off the kitchen area lead to a private, fully fenced-in backyard with a patio, offering a great space for outdoor relaxation. Both bedrooms are bright and cozy, with the primary bedroom boasting a spacious walk-in closet. Convenient first-floor laundry! This home offers the ideal balance of suburban tranquility with easy access to city amenities. Close to shopping, parks, and restaurants. A true gem you don’t want to miss! No delayed negotiations to accommodate holiday season. Make it yours today!

Key facts

• First floor laundry
• Vaulted ceilings
• Stone patio

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• STONE PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (shared driveway); 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity available and connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2 stories; Existing (year built unknown); Asphalt shingle roof; Residential lot (rectangular, near public transit, city street frontage)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Fully fenced yard; Private yard; Patio; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (Second level); Bedroom 2 (Second level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Dining area; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Living/dining room; Sliding glass door(s); Sliding doors; Has fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-365 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Greece Central School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #544 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,058 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.94%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,528
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
97 Morrow Dr	0.13mi	2/1.0	1,234 (+2%)	4mo	$217,000	$176	88
122 Clearview Rd	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,257 (+3%)	2mo	$151,000	$120	73
80 Ripplewood Dr	0.17mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,308 (+8%)	2mo	$269,000	$206	70
48 Skycrest Dr	0.38mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,288 (+6%)	2mo	$265,000	$206	63
31 Morrow Dr	0.19mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,070 (-12%)	3mo	$235,000	$220	62
259 Windsor Rd	0.26mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,124 (-8%)	3mo	$245,000	$218	62
89 Alpine Rd	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,132 (-7%)	0mo	$155,500	$137	61
60 Hilltop Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+7%)	2mo	$281,000	$217	55
143 Sandalwood Dr	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,040 (-14%)	2mo	$190,000	$183	51
108 Glenbrook Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,088 (-10%)	5mo	$155,650	$143	49
65 Villewood Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,350 (+11%)	1mo	$215,000	$159	42
591 Britton Rd	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,392 (+14%)	2mo	$225,000	$162	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-51,290
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-73,446
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14616

• Home prices YoY: -18.0%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,588 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$629 /mo · $7,553/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,050

Max offer price $151,058

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-266	-5% $-315	+0% $-365	+5% $-414	+10% $-464
Rent	-10% $-490	-5% $-427	+0% $-365	+5% $-302	+10% $-239
Rate	-1.0pp $-277	-0.5pp $-320	base $-365	+0.5pp $-410	+1.0pp $-456

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Windsor Rd Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1142	$1,700	$1.49	4d	1	0.19mi
44 Windsor Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	882	$1,795	$2.04	4d	1	0.21mi
534-582 Denise Rd Unit 562 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,575	$1.57	4d	1	0.22mi
154 Woodhill Dr Unit 3 Greece, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	23d	1	0.38mi
154 Woodhill Dr Greece, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	740	$1,350	$1.82	4d	2	0.38mi
108 Glenbrook Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1088	$1,850	$1.70	25d	1	0.52mi
360 Britton Rd Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	837	$1,479	$1.77	4d	2	0.58mi
419 Britton Rd Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1025	$1,595	$1.56	4d	1	0.66mi
553 Britton Rd Unit Uppr Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	16d	1	0.66mi
3677 Lake Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1088	$1,200	$1.10	45d	1	0.74mi
3704 Lake Ave Rochester, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	25d	1	0.76mi
1255 Latta Rd Greece, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	705	$1,570	$2.23	4d	5	0.76mi
304 Bakerdale Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1256	$1,650	$1.31	46d	1	0.79mi
38 Valley St Apt 4 Rochester, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	5d	1	0.83mi
4 Valley Brook Cir Greece, NY	2.0	1.5	1047	$2,306	$2.20	4d	3	0.84mi
704 Rumson Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,950	$1.77	5d	1	0.89mi
500 Greenleaf Rd Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	1176	$1,650	$1.40	4d	1	0.97mi
175 English Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1194	$1,975	$1.65	45d	1	1.02mi
123 Spanish Trl Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	945	$1,775	$1.88	4d	1	1.05mi
130 N Park Dr Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1120	$2,000	$1.79	45d	1	1.12mi
331 Leonard Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,850	$1.60	5d	1	1.25mi
180 Whitehall Dr Greece, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,230	$1.45	4d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $174,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $174,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,553 · $629/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,553 · $629/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$7,553
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,525
• − Management: −$1,525
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$7,302
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,752
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greece Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612630
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,718
• Composite: 32.26/100
• National rank: #5761
• State rank: #544 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,863
• Household income: $66,499
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 789.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.14%
• Current HPI: 246.1703
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+161.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $174,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2025-02-24 Sold (MLS) $170,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-12-17 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2024-12-15 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2024-12-13 Listed $159,000 UNYREIS
• 2017-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $93,500 Public Records
• 2017-07-29 Sold (MLS) $93,500 UNYREIS
• 2017-07-19 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2017-06-08 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2017-06-06 Price Changed $89,900 UNYREIS
• 2017-05-15 Listed $92,500 UNYREIS
• 2017-03-23 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2017-03-22 Sold (MLS) $51,500 UNYREIS
• 2017-02-26 Listed $59,900 UNYREIS
• 2016-12-31 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2016-12-07 Price Changed $59,900 UNYREIS
• 2016-11-04 Price Changed $64,900 UNYREIS
• 2016-10-11 Price Changed $69,900 UNYREIS
• 2016-09-13 Price Changed $74,900 UNYREIS
• 2016-08-11 Listed $79,900 UNYREIS
• 2014-07-25 Listed $82,500 UNYREIS
• 2014-01-14 Listed $82,500 UNYREIS
• 2013-07-12 Listed $89,900 UNYREIS
• 2009-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $84,500 Public Records
• 2001-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,553 · +57.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.