1011 Massengill St · Winchester, TN 37398

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1969 0.26 ac lot Est $238k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great started home or Investment property (currently rented. ) Cute little 3 bedroom/2 bath home with bonus room that could even serve as a 4th bedroom. Located within walking distance of Tim's Ford Lake and just minutes from Downtown Winchester!

Key facts

• Bonus room
• 0.26 acre lot
• Parking

Tags

• BONUS ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; Carport with 1 covered space (total 1 parking space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Lot roughly 0.26 acres (approx. dimensions 97 x 115 irregular)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Electric oven; Crawl space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $538 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.2% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#149 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities D-.
• Franklin County (town): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #111 of 139 in TN (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Clark Memorial School (math 14% / reading 27%, grade F, #637 of 952 statewide, top 68%, 489 students, 0% FRL); North Middle School (math 13% / reading 19%, grade F, #223 of 333 statewide, top 68%, 587 students, 0% FRL); Franklin Co High School (math 5% / reading 22%, grade F, #255 of 332 statewide, top 77%, 1,180 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 325 active listings in the ZIP; 422 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $200k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.54%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,728
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
211 Wilson St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-3%)	2mo	$113,000	$91	74
711 Hunt St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-9%)	2mo	$215,975	$184	70
707 Hunt St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-9%)	10mo	$221,400	$188	63
715 Hunt St	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,472 (+14%)	10mo	$227,000	$154	60
103 Dalewood Dr	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-13%)	2mo	$188,000	$168	54
102 Lisa Cir	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+7%)	0mo	$294,200	$213	53
114 Allen Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+8%)	1mo	$199,500	$143	47
119 Highland Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,433 (+11%)	2mo	$210,000	$147	47
811 Cumberland Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+10%)	4mo	$235,000	$166	46
115 Highland Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+5%)	10mo	$260,000	$192	46
804 Pleasant View Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,148 (-11%)	6mo	$220,000	$192	41
132 Highland Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,466 (+14%)	5mo	$275,000	$188	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,801
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $45,365
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37398

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,188 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $706/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,507

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $651	-5% $595	+0% $538	+5% $482	+10% $425
Rent	-10% $365	-5% $452	+0% $538	+5% $625	+10% $711
Rate	-1.0pp $639	-0.5pp $589	base $538	+0.5pp $486	+1.0pp $434

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,900 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,900 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,900 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,900 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-03-16
   listed $199,900 Active
10. 2026-03-04
    historical
11. 2026-01-12
    listed $199,900 Active
12. 2025-09-30
    soldstatus $125,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $706 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$713/yr (+$59/mo · 101.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$706
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $3,338
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$801
• After-tax cash flow: $5,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County
• NCES district ID: 4701290
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $43,108
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9094
• State rank: #111 of 139 in TN

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #13341

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, TN
• Population (ZIP): 15,712

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,858 people
• By 2030: 43,540 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 44,623 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 45,523 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 48,954 · +14.2%
• By 2100: 50,170 · +17.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.2) · D 23.0% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -53.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.2 2020: R+47.7 2016: R+43.7 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.03%
• Current HPI: 333.839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+59.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $199,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Listed $199,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $125,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $706 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.