402 Northbay Dr · Madison, MS 39110

$395,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,455 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1991 0.36 ac lot Est $383k · at est. $88/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Want an aggressively priced, move-in ready, well designed, charming 4 BR/3BA home in Madison? If so, take a look at 402 Northbay Drive! Situated perfectly on a large corner lot, this beautifully landscaped home has been freshened w/some new paint & the "Honey Do" list is complete & ready for you. There is NO CARPET in the living areas of this home (only in 2 closets), only wood & ceramic tile, including UPSTAIRS! The sq.ft. is 2311+ but feels so much bigger! The foyer entry opens to the Formal Dining Room featuring exceptional molding/trim detail. Ahead is the spacious Great Room w/ F/P, lots of natural light & high ceilings. Featuring all new ss appliances, an island, bar seating, tile decor backsplashes, tons of faux finished cabinets & countertop space, seperate walk-in pantry, this kitchen will suit the most gourmet of cooks down to the casual cook. Located just off the kitchen is the seperate Breakfast Room. The Master BR is very roomy w/great wall space to meet all your furniture needs. The Master BA has dbl vanities, jetted tub, sep. shower, private toilet area, 2 WALK-IN CLOSETS & custom framed mirrors. 2 well sized BR & 1 full BA complete the downstairs. Both have walk-in closets but one has a closet so large it is currently being used as an OFFICE. Upstairs is the HUGE 4th BR/BONUS w/window seat for storage, full bath & large walk-in closet. There are 2 levels of fully floored attic space to store tons & tons of household items. Last but not least, the screened in porch is a delight for entertaining or relaxing after a busy day. Off the porch is a patio & 2 deck areas overlooking the fully fenced landscaped backyard. The PLAYHOUSE remains. HVAC & roof less than 5 years old, gutters & 1 year HOME WARRANTY! Neighborhood amenities include: Gated entrances, pools, tennis courts, clubhouse, walking trail, boat storage and launch into Ross Barnett Reservoir.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Large island
• Spacious family room

Tags

• NEW QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee ($1,050) covering grounds maintenance, management, and pool service; Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, biking and hiking/walking trails, RV/boat storage and RV parking

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; 2 total parking spaces
• Security: Gated community; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; House; Updated/remodeled; One and one-half levels
• Construction: Brick and stucco construction; Architectural shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation and slab; Built (year from public records)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Porch (screened, slab); Privacy wood fencing in back yard; Reservoir waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Electric cooktop; Electric range; Oven; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Pantry
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Pantry; Storage; Walk-in closet(s); Vinyl windows; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Gas water heater; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $971 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $395k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.8% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Avenue Lower Elementary (437 students, 99% FRL); Madison Middle School (math 66% / reading 57%, grade B+, #6 of 179 statewide, top 3%, 1,154 students, 100% FRL); Madison Central High School (math 5% / reading 63%, grade F, #78 of 197 statewide, top 39%, 1,246 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 632 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $395,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.54%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $382,980
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
77 Moss Woods Dr	0.43mi	4/3.5	2,393 (-2%)	1mo	$365,000	$153	73
93 Napa Valley Cir	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,409 (-2%)	1mo	$359,900	$149	72
69 Moss Woods Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,351 (-4%)	1mo	$369,900	$157	69
217 Bayview Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,153 (-12%)	1mo	$379,900	$176	61
279 Bayview Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,254 (-8%)	6mo	$374,500	$166	60
110 Greens View Dr	0.30mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,665 (+9%)	5mo	$395,000	$148	59
20 Moss Woods Cv	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,141 (-13%)	6mo	$335,000	$156	53
41 Napa Valley Cir	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,590 (+6%)	1mo	$375,000	$145	51
213 Kiowa Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0	2,352 (-4%)	8mo	$280,000	$119	51
116 Oak Hollow Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,454 (-0%)	11mo	$268,500	$109	50
57 Napa Valley Cir	0.52mi	4/2.0	2,224 (-9%)	9mo	$389,000	$175	45
54 Moss Woods Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,139 (-13%)	8mo	$354,900	$166	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-3,925
• Equity at exit: $58,896

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $68,975
• Equity at exit: $34,152

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 632
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,448 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,624/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$934
• Net cashflow: $971

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,219

Max offer price $395,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,195	-5% $1,083	+0% $971	+5% $860	+10% $748
Rent	-10% $620	-5% $796	+0% $971	+5% $1,147	+10% $1,323
Rate	-1.0pp $1,170	-0.5pp $1,072	base $971	+0.5pp $869	+1.0pp $765

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
145 Republic St Madison, MS	3.0	3.0	2800	$8,000	$2.86	45d	1	1.38mi
143 Sonnett Cir Madison, MS	4.0	3.0	2564	$3,250	$1.27	24d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $395,000 Active
2. 2011-06-01
   soldstatus 1952-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1952 chars)

   Want an aggressively priced, move-in ready, well designed, charming 4 BR/3BA home in Madison? If so, take a look at 402 Northbay Drive! Situated perfectly on a large corner lot, this beautifully landscaped home has been freshened w/some new paint & the "Honey Do" list is complete & ready for you. There is NO CARPET in the living areas of this home (only in 2 closets), only wood & ceramic tile, including UPSTAIRS! The sq.ft. is 2311+ but feels so much bigger! The foyer entry opens to the Formal Dining Room featuring exceptional molding/trim detail. Ahead is the spacious Great Room w/ F/P, lots of natural light & high ceilings. Featuring all new ss appliances, an island, bar seating, tile decor backsplashes, tons of faux finished cabinets & countertop space, seperate walk-in pantry, this kitchen will suit the most gourmet of cooks down to the casual cook. Located just off the kitchen is the seperate Breakfast Room. The Master BR is very roomy w/great wall space to meet all your furniture needs. The Master BA has dbl vanities, jetted tub, sep. shower, private toilet area, 2 WALK-IN CLOSETS & custom framed mirrors. 2 well sized BR & 1 full BA complete the downstairs. Both have walk-in closets but one has a closet so large it is currently being used as an OFFICE. Upstairs is the HUGE 4th BR/BONUS w/window seat for storage, full bath & large walk-in closet. There are 2 levels of fully floored attic space to store tons & tons of household items. Last but not least, the screened in porch is a delight for entertaining or relaxing after a busy day. Off the porch is a patio & 2 deck areas overlooking the fully fenced landscaped backyard. The PLAYHOUSE remains. HVAC & roof less than 5 years old, gutters & 1 year HOME WARRANTY! Neighborhood amenities include: Gated entrances, pools, tennis courts, clubhouse, walking trail, boat storage and launch into Ross Barnett Reservoir.

3. 2011-04-11
   listed $227,500 1952-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1952 chars)

   Want an aggressively priced, move-in ready, well designed, charming 4 BR/3BA home in Madison? If so, take a look at 402 Northbay Drive! Situated perfectly on a large corner lot, this beautifully landscaped home has been freshened w/some new paint & the "Honey Do" list is complete & ready for you. There is NO CARPET in the living areas of this home (only in 2 closets), only wood & ceramic tile, including UPSTAIRS! The sq.ft. is 2311+ but feels so much bigger! The foyer entry opens to the Formal Dining Room featuring exceptional molding/trim detail. Ahead is the spacious Great Room w/ F/P, lots of natural light & high ceilings. Featuring all new ss appliances, an island, bar seating, tile decor backsplashes, tons of faux finished cabinets & countertop space, seperate walk-in pantry, this kitchen will suit the most gourmet of cooks down to the casual cook. Located just off the kitchen is the seperate Breakfast Room. The Master BR is very roomy w/great wall space to meet all your furniture needs. The Master BA has dbl vanities, jetted tub, sep. shower, private toilet area, 2 WALK-IN CLOSETS & custom framed mirrors. 2 well sized BR & 1 full BA complete the downstairs. Both have walk-in closets but one has a closet so large it is currently being used as an OFFICE. Upstairs is the HUGE 4th BR/BONUS w/window seat for storage, full bath & large walk-in closet. There are 2 levels of fully floored attic space to store tons & tons of household items. Last but not least, the screened in porch is a delight for entertaining or relaxing after a busy day. Off the porch is a patio & 2 deck areas overlooking the fully fenced landscaped backyard. The PLAYHOUSE remains. HVAC & roof less than 5 years old, gutters & 1 year HOME WARRANTY! Neighborhood amenities include: Gated entrances, pools, tennis courts, clubhouse, walking trail, boat storage and launch into Ross Barnett Reservoir.

4. 2000-05-12
   soldstatus
5. 1991-06-06
   soldstatus
6. 1991-06-06
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,624 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,121 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: +$497/yr (+$41/mo · 18.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,378
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$2,624
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,270
• − Management: −$4,270
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable income: $5,566
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,336
• After-tax cash flow: $10,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, MS
• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+73.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $395,000 MLSU
• 2011-06-01 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2011-04-11 Listed $227,500 MLSU
• 2000-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,624 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.