9968 Downing St · Semmes, AL 36575

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,653 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1980 0.46 ac lot $91/sqft · 35% below area Est $230k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

9968 Downing Street in Semmes is ready for new owners! This quaint 3 bed 2 bath house sits on nearly half an acre of land giving plenty of room for kids, animals, gardening, and entertaining! This home boasts a fireplace - awesome for the cooler months! Two storage building in the back yard will remain. Call your favorite realtor today to schedule your showing. May be Subject to the Alabama One Year Right of Redemption.

Key facts

• Storage building
• Half an acre
• Fireplace

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• FIREPLACE
• STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 5.3% in Semmes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#311 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.23%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,116
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -34.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9968 Downing St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,653 (0%)	0mo	$143,000	$87	100
9978 Downing St	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+2%)	13mo	$222,900	$133	86
3571 Viking Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-5%)	9mo	$248,000	$158	76
3557 Viking Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,553 (-6%)	13mo	$205,000	$132	71
10153 British Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-9%)	2mo	$200,000	$133	70
9940 Wulff Rd S	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (-6%)	10mo	$124,000	$80	69
10201 Broughton Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,537 (-7%)	4mo	$230,000	$150	63
4086 Nottingham Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,545 (-6%)	3mo	$226,900	$147	52
10000 Broughton Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+14%)	11mo	$279,900	$149	52
3490 Deer Track Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,875 (+13%)	9mo	$280,000	$149	51
4092 Nottingham Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,735 (+5%)	10mo	$237,000	$137	49
9771 Winchester Cir S	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-14%)	14mo	$230,000	$161	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $14,112
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $61,792
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36575

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,020/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,287

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9340 Roberts Ln W Semmes, AL	3.0	2.0	1606	$2,050	$1.28	43d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 424-char remark

   Show marketing remark (424 chars)

   9968 Downing Street in Semmes is ready for new owners! This quaint 3 bed 2 bath house sits on nearly half an acre of land giving plenty of room for kids, animals, gardening, and entertaining! This home boasts a fireplace - awesome for the cooler months! Two storage building in the back yard will remain. Call your favorite realtor today to schedule your showing. May be Subject to the Alabama One Year Right of Redemption.

2. 2026-04-23
   price $149,900 424-char remark

   Show marketing remark (424 chars)

   9968 Downing Street in Semmes is ready for new owners! This quaint 3 bed 2 bath house sits on nearly half an acre of land giving plenty of room for kids, animals, gardening, and entertaining! This home boasts a fireplace - awesome for the cooler months! Two storage building in the back yard will remain. Call your favorite realtor today to schedule your showing. May be Subject to the Alabama One Year Right of Redemption.

3. 2026-03-20
   listed $159,900 Active 424-char remark

   Show marketing remark (424 chars)

   9968 Downing Street in Semmes is ready for new owners! This quaint 3 bed 2 bath house sits on nearly half an acre of land giving plenty of room for kids, animals, gardening, and entertaining! This home boasts a fireplace - awesome for the cooler months! Two storage building in the back yard will remain. Call your favorite realtor today to schedule your showing. May be Subject to the Alabama One Year Right of Redemption.

4. 2022-06-27
   soldstatus $198,000
5. 2022-06-22
   soldstatus $198,000 476-char remark

   Show marketing remark (476 chars)

   Back on the Market pending release of sale due to financing issue. USDA Eligible Home which means NO Down payment if you qualify! Plenty of space in this well cared for home in Semmes. This home features a large living room with fireplace, eat in kitchen, 3 bed and 2 bath. Per seller, septic was recently pumped and AC recently serviced. Electric gate and security system comes with the house. All doors are equipped with keyless entry. Don't hesitate to see this home today!

6. 2017-01-10
   soldstatus $135,054

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,020 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,020 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,020
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $5,138
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,233
• After-tax cash flow: $5,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Semmes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #19360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,444

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.58%
• Current HPI: 217.5112
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+11.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $149,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-20 Listed $159,900 GCMLS AL
• 2022-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $198,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-22 Sold (MLS) $198,000 GCMLS AL
• 2017-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $135,054 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,020 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.