22325 Highway 18, Unit #54 · Apple Valley, CA 92307

$45,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 114 Days on market

Built 1973 Fair condition 1,152 sqft lot $39/sqft · 59% below area ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Why RENT when you can OWN this charming, well-kept newly renovated mobile home, featuring 2 bedrooms, 2 baths plus a BONUS room/laundry area. Welcome to this brightly-lit living room, dining area and kitchen highlighted by a delightfully hand-crafted wooden counter. This affordable gem could be highly valuable in due time. All ages community, pet-friendly, with swimming pool and clubhouse and laundry room. Close to local parks, shopping centers and schools.

Key facts

• 1,152 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.5% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 526 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→4/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 114.87%
• DSCR: 6.11
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,000
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -59.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22325 US Highway 18 #82	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,173 (+2%)	12mo	$123,000	$105	76
21922 Ottowa Rd #1	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,148 (-0%)	4mo	$65,000	$57	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $74,470
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.69×
• Total profit: $185,087
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92307

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $1,206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22039 Biloxi Ave Unit 2-3 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	44d	1	0.47mi
19142 California 18 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	44d	1	0.90mi
13583 Algonquin Rd Unit 4 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,195	$1.42	44d	1	0.90mi
21601 Powhatan Rd Unit 10 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,550	$1.85	44d	1	0.95mi
14080 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	748	$1,849	$2.47	5d	1	0.99mi
14080 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	748	$1,850	$2.47	24d	1	0.99mi
13192 Navajo Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	944	$1,850	$1.96	44d	1	1.02mi
13584 Yakima Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	930	$1,568	$1.69	24d	1	1.04mi
13192 Navajo Rd #3 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	944	$1,795	$1.90	24d	1	1.04mi
13207 Franceska Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	1.0	1440	$2,200	$1.53	2d	1	1.06mi
14313 Osage Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,950	$1.70	44d	1	1.07mi
13073 Navajo Rd Unit A Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	24d	1	1.08mi
13464 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	937	$1,799	$1.92	18d	1	1.31mi
14742 Quivero Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1470	$3,500	$2.38	44d	1	1.35mi
13116 Mohawk Rd Apt 2 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,800	$2.06	5d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-04-25
    price $49,900 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    Why RENT when you can OWN this charming, well-kept newly renovated mobile home, featuring 2 bedrooms, 2 baths plus a BONUS room/laundry area. Welcome to this brightly-lit living room, dining area and kitchen highlighted by a delightfully hand-crafted wooden counter. This affordable gem could be highly valuable in due time. All ages community, pet-friendly, with swimming pool and clubhouse and laundry room. Close to local parks, shopping centers and schools.

16. 2026-02-24
    listed $55,000 Active 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    Why RENT when you can OWN this charming, well-kept newly renovated mobile home, featuring 2 bedrooms, 2 baths plus a BONUS room/laundry area. Welcome to this brightly-lit living room, dining area and kitchen highlighted by a delightfully hand-crafted wooden counter. This affordable gem could be highly valuable in due time. All ages community, pet-friendly, with swimming pool and clubhouse and laundry room. Close to local parks, shopping centers and schools.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 1 d/yr ≥100°F today · 4 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,844
• − Management: −$1,844
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $14,628
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,511
• After-tax cash flow: $10,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home requires cosmetic repairs and maintenance to improve its curb appeal and resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major landscaping — Sparse and unkempt

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improves curb appeal and resale value
• Both paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both replace air conditioning unit — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Sparse and unkempt	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improves curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both replace air conditioning unit — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,180
• Household income: $77,106
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1069.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 22% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.21%
• Current HPI: 347.8498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-9.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $49,900 CRMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $55,000 CRMLS