40 Canoe Pl #3 · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$289,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Condo · 34 Days on market

Built 1970 $525/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

, Additional information: Great Unit, completely gutted and remodeled. First Floor unit, parking area is conveniently situated in front of the Unit. The Co-op is in walking distance to the water and also to the restaurants. Approximately 7 miles to Southampton. The town shopping is also less than a mile away.

Key facts

• Parking area
• First floor unit
• Town shopping

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR UNIT
• PARKING AREA
• WALKING DISTANCE TO THE WATER
• TOWN SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($36k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $289k).
• Recommended offer: $280k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,970/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.25%
• DSCR: 2.97
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $180,502
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.06×
• Total profit: $571,315
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,970 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,335/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$525
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,464
• Net cashflow: $2,984

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,193

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
62 Canoe Place Rd #627 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	661	$4,500	$6.81	43d	1	0.21mi
49 Canoe Place Rd #212 Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	672	$3,700	$5.51	43d	1	0.21mi
49 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	500	$12,000	$24.00	6d	1	0.55mi
52 Wauhope Rd Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	500	$20,000	$40.00	24d	1	0.61mi
18 Canal St Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	584	$11,000	$18.84	18d	1	0.64mi
164 W Montauk Hwy Hampton Bays, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	610	$4,195	$6.88	43d	1	1.47mi
129 Lamplight Cir Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	734	$3,245	$4.42	6d	12	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $525 · $6,300/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   listed $289,000 Active
3. 2026-01-28
   historical
4. 2026-01-03
   price $350,000
5. 2025-11-19
   price $450,000
6. 2025-10-08
   listed $350,000 Active
7. 2024-11-26
   historical
8. 2024-11-03
   status Active
9. 2024-10-16
   listed $350,000 Active
10. 2024-03-06
    historical
11. 2024-03-01
    listed $319,000 Active
12. 2022-10-19
    soldstatus $215,000 Closed
13. 2022-06-01
    status Pending
14. 2022-05-31
    historical
15. 2022-04-08
    status Active
16. 2022-03-26
    historical
17. 2022-02-04
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $83,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$4,335
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,691
• − Management: −$6,691
• − HOA: −$6,300
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable income: $33,584
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,060
• After-tax cash flow: $27,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+28.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Listed $289,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Listed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-03 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-16 Listed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-01 Listed $319,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-19 Sold (MLS) $215,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-08 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-04 Listed $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid