336 W Addie St · Lead, SD 57754

$130,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 203 Days on market

Built 1905 3,049 sqft lot Est $188k · 31% under ↓ 18% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• Built 1905
• Listed 203 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($775/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 0.4% in Lead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#69 in SD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lead-Deadwood School District 40-1 (town): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 59 in SD (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lead-Deadwood Elementary - 03 (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #169 of 253 statewide, top 71%, 293 students, 33% FRL); Lead-Deadwood Middle School - 02 (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #93 of 143 statewide, top 67%, 159 students, 37% FRL); Lead-Deadwood High School - 01 (math 24% / reading 54%, grade F, #123 of 151 statewide, top 83%, 222 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 334 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.13%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,740
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
403 W Mcclellan St	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,341 (+6%)	11mo	$290,000	$216	65
113 Alert St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,305 (+4%)	8mo	$174,900	$134	65
107 1/2 Spark St	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,130 (-10%)	10mo	$47,000	$42	61
810 Sunnyhill Rd	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,295 (+3%)	2mo	$255,000	$197	61
217 Gold St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+7%)	13mo	$255,000	$189	60
121 S Stone St	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-13%)	10mo	$140,000	$127	56
121 S Other	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-13%)	10mo	$140,000	$127	56
16 W Mcclellan St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,367 (+8%)	14mo	$230,000	$168	56
213 Terraville Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,262 (+0%)	14mo	$188,000	$149	54
626 Prospect Ave	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,180 (-6%)	10mo	$97,000	$82	53
403 Mcquillan Ave	0.04mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,082 (-14%)	9mo	$139,320	$129	50
720 Barclay Ave	0.53mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,352 (+7%)	14mo	$225,900	$167	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-16,968
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-9,550
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57754

• Home prices YoY: -33.7%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,260/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,064

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $101	+0% $65	+5% $28	+10% $-9
Rent	-10% $-26	-5% $19	+0% $65	+5% $110	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $98	base $65	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2023-05-29
   status Pending
2. 2023-01-02
   price $130,000
3. 2022-12-09
   status Active
4. 2022-12-09
   price $140,000
5. 2022-11-10
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2022-10-26
   listed $159,000 Active
7. 2022-09-19
   status Active
8. 2022-09-19
   status Active
9. 2022-09-12
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2022-09-12
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2022-06-16
    listed $159,000 Active
12. 2022-06-16
    listed $159,000 Active
13. 2022-02-01
    listed $159,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SD · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,703 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$443/yr (+$37/mo · 35.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,755
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,260
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,100
• − Management: −$1,100
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$1,420
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$341
• After-tax cash flow: $1,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lead-Deadwood School District 40-1
• NCES district ID: 4641300
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,939
• Composite: 34.07/100
• National rank: #5299
• State rank: #51 of 59 in SD

Livability — Lead

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #8236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lead, SD
• Population (ZIP): 3,605

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,092 people
• By 2030: 28,137 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 29,908 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 31,789 · +17.3%
• By 2075: 38,917 · +43.6%
• By 2100: 50,407 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Slovak 4% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.3) · D 32.9% · R 64.3% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -15.4pp · 2024: -31.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.3 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 208.8064
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2023-05-29 Pending — MRAOR
• 2023-01-02 Price Changed $130,000 MRAOR
• 2022-12-09 Relisted — MRAOR
• 2022-12-09 Price Changed $140,000 MRAOR
• 2022-11-10 Contingent — MRAOR
• 2022-10-26 Listed $159,000 MRAOR
• 2022-09-19 Relisted — MRAOR
• 2022-09-19 Relisted — BHMLS
• 2022-09-12 Contingent — MRAOR
• 2022-09-12 Contingent — BHMLS
• 2022-06-16 Listed $159,000 MRAOR
• 2022-06-16 Listed $159,000 BHMLS
• 2022-02-01 Listed $159,000 MRAOR

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,260 · -14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.