25 Winding River Dr · Toms River, NJ 08755

$299,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1960 9,147 sqft lot $231/sqft · 38% below area Est $485k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all Handy Buyers and Savvy Homeowners. Discover the ultimate ''diamond in the rough. This 4 bedroom, 2 baths with full basement is a true opportunity.

Key facts

• 9,147 sq ft lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Timberline roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil above-ground heating; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood flooring; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $893 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,885/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($88k/yr) (locally 529% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $299k implies a 834% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $299,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.79%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $484,631
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -38.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Winding River Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,164 (-10%)	2mo	$510,000	$438	75
12 Harley Rd	0.42mi	4/1.5	1,308 (+1%)	6mo	$425,000	$325	72
18 Rail Pl	0.07mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,376 (+6%)	13mo	$505,000	$367	68
18 Tanager Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,344 (+4%)	11mo	$457,000	$340	66
22 Rail Pl	0.09mi	4/1.5	1,178 (-9%)	16mo	$430,000	$365	65
25 Oak Leaf Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,366 (+5%)	15mo	$440,000	$322	65
10 Germania Ct	0.21mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,136 (-12%)	12mo	$410,000	$361	51
23 Shady Nook Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,107 (-15%)	21mo	$336,500	$304	33
53 Sutton Pl	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-9%)	18mo	$430,000	$366	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $8,528
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $81,146
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,885 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$484 /mo · $5,803/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$816
• Net cashflow: $893

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,755

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,062	-5% $977	+0% $893	+5% $808	+10% $723
Rent	-10% $586	-5% $739	+0% $893	+5% $1,046	+10% $1,200
Rate	-1.0pp $1,043	-0.5pp $969	base $893	+0.5pp $815	+1.0pp $736

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29 Oak Ridge Pkwy Unit Sfh Toms River, NJ	4.0	2.0	1000	$3,325	$3.33	17d	1	0.02mi
19 Oak Ridge Pkwy Unit Sfh Toms River, NJ	4.0	2.5	1000	$3,374	$3.37	17d	1	0.09mi
1190 Dell St Unit Sfh Toms River, NJ	5.0	2.0	1200	$3,474	$2.90	17d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 158-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $299,000 Active 158-char remark
3. 1978-05-30
   soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,803 · $484/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,624 · $552/mo
• Expected delta: +$821/yr (+$68/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$5,803
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,729
• − Management: −$3,729
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $6,412
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,539
• After-tax cash flow: $9,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+834.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $299,000 MOMLS
• 1978-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,803 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.