13712 Knights Branch Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,219 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 4,399 sqft lot $164/sqft · 21% below area Est $253k · 21% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked inside the Elm Creek North community, this 2022-built 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers modern living with an open-concept layout, energy-efficient design, and low-maintenance finishes. The home also features a whole-house water softener system and a separate filtered/alkaline water faucet in the kitchen. The community features parks, a pool, playgrounds, and walking trails. Convenient access to Hwy 290 and 130 provides an easy commute to Austin, Tesla, and surrounding employment hubs.

Key facts

• Open-concept layout
• 4,399 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT DESIGN
• WHOLE-HOUSE WATER SOFTENER
• FILTERED ALKALINE WATER FAUCET
• COMMUNITY FEATURES PARKS
• COMMUNITY FEATURES POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Part of Elm Creek North homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2022; Slab foundation
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot roughly 4,400 sq ft (about 0.10 acres); Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas Range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor; Primary bathroom on second floor; Two additional bedrooms on second floor (each about 10x10); Bedroom on second floor about 12x13
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Electric cooling
• Interior features: No fireplaces; Seller disclosure available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-375/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (2.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,348
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -21.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13036 Date Palm Trl	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,194 (-2%)	7mo	$221,000	$185	77
14108 Mussel Run	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,217 (-0%)	14mo	$235,000	$193	77
17909 Honey Locust Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,241 (+2%)	17mo	$229,000	$185	72
13324 Illumination Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-2%)	19mo	$211,990	$177	68
17900 Honey Locust Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+9%)	11mo	$230,742	$174	66
23513 Tiny Moons	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-2%)	19mo	$219,990	$183	63
23504 Iron Lantern Way	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+4%)	18mo	$259,990	$205	62
17609 Soapberry Cv	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,102 (-10%)	3mo	$235,000	$213	59
13816 Menard Way	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,041 (-15%)	15mo	$241,225	$232	55
23416 Iron Lantern Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+13%)	19mo	$214,990	$156	50
13524 Sierra Wind Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,315 (+8%)	9mo	$190,680	$145	49
23509 Iron Lantern Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+13%)	19mo	$219,990	$159	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $107,355
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.69×
• Total profit: $318,554
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,011 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$488 /mo · $5,852/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,050

Max offer price $194,481

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	4d	1	0.01mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	24d	1	0.11mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	24d	1	0.24mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	16d	1	0.24mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $210,000 495-char remark
15. 2026-05-06
    price $220,000 495-char remark
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $225,000 Active 495-char remark
17. 2025-10-22
    status Active
18. 2025-05-09
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,852 · $488/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,852 · $488/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$5,852
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,930
• − Management: −$1,930
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,604
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$865
• After-tax cash flow: $490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2022-built home in Elm Creek North offers a good condition with modern finishes and low-maintenance features. It is move-in ready with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and comfort.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-05-09 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+106.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,852 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.