211 Carson Dr · Poplar Grove, IL 61065

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,748 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1998 0.44 ac lot $172/sqft · 61% above area Est $335k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Sold "as is".

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1998

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential property listed by Dickerson & Nieman

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential house
• Construction: Below-grade finished area approximately 1,400
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; 0.44-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Two bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $295k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#598 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• North Boone CUSD 200 (rural): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #440 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Poplar Grove Elem School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #940 of 2,056 statewide, top 49%, 238 students, 0% FRL); North Boone Middle School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #425 of 665 statewide, top 65%, 242 students, 0% FRL); North Boone High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #430 of 693 statewide, top 66%, 517 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 35% district-wide (35 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Boone County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $295,401 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.90%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,477
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -10.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Carson Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,567 (-10%)	11mo	$285,000	$182	69
304 S State St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,794 (+3%)	4mo	$242,000	$135	68
207 Sherman Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,749 (+0%)	0mo	$335,000	$192	67
207 Sherman Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,749 (+0%)	0mo	$335,000	$192	67
209 N State St	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,774 (+2%)	22mo	$235,000	$132	64
293 Oak St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+3%)	7mo	$324,900	$181	60
112 E Grove St	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-12%)	21mo	$176,000	$115	53
109 S State St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,632 (-7%)	20mo	$175,000	$107	52
307 S State St	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,756 (+0%)	20mo	$248,000	$141	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $141,951
• Equity at exit: $138,696

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.26×
• Total profit: $358,051
• Equity at exit: $216,788

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61065

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$466 /mo · $5,594/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,001
• Net cashflow: $1,603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,739

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-04
   listed $299,900 Active 23-char remark
2. 2025-09-10
   historical
3. 2025-08-04
   price $309,900
4. 2004-07-02
   soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,594 · $466/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,201 · $517/mo
• Expected delta: +$607/yr (+$51/mo · 10.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$5,594
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,577
• − Management: −$4,577
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $15,442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,706
• After-tax cash flow: $15,526/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Boone CUSD 200
• NCES district ID: 1728700
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $59,553
• Composite: 16.73/100
• National rank: #9163
• State rank: #440 of 620 in IL

Livability — Poplar Grove

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #598
• US rank: #12394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poplar Grove, IL
• Population (ZIP): 10,927

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,507 people
• By 2030: 51,509 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 48,611 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 44,363 · -15.5%
• By 2075: 33,262 · -36.7%
• By 2100: 21,495 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: R (+14.5) · D 42.0% · R 56.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: 4.2pp · 2024: -14.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.5 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+14.6 2012: R+5.7 2008: D+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.23%
• Current HPI: 232.9144
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+177.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Sold (MLS) $305,000 NWIAR
• 2026-05-21 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-05-04 Listed $299,900 NWIAR
• 2025-09-10 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $309,900 NWIAR
• 2004-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,594 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.