3200 Windy Hill Rd · Dundee, FL 33844

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1972 0.99 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One-acre property in the heart of Haines City! This 3 bed 2 bath double wide mobile home offers 1,248 sq ft of living space with a metal roof approximately 11 years old and good plumbing and electrical throughout. A private in-ground pool perfect for the Florida lifestyle, a bonus barn ideal for equipment or extra storage, and RV/boat parking right on site with no HOA restrictions. Almost a full acre of land gives you the space and freedom that is hard to find at this price point. Property is being sold as-is — kitchen, bathrooms, and furnace may need updating, and the price reflects that. A rare find with this much land, a pool, and a barn in one package. Cash and conventional financ

Key facts

• Rv boat parking
• In ground pool
• One acre property

Tags

• IN GROUND POOL
• BONUS BARN
• RV BOAT PARKING
• ONE ACRE PROPERTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.99 acre (about 140 x 305) with dirt road access
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Boat and RV parking available; Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity available; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); Parkwood make; One level; Faces north
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Barn(s) on property
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Storage; In-ground private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $584 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alta Vista Elementary School (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 769 students, 60% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $160k implies a 255% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,501 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.66%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $7,628
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $40,005
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,007 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,148/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $584

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,267

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $675	-5% $630	+0% $584	+5% $539	+10% $494
Rent	-10% $426	-5% $505	+0% $584	+5% $664	+10% $743
Rate	-1.0pp $665	-0.5pp $625	base $584	+0.5pp $543	+1.0pp $501

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29 Coyer Rd Unit 2 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$2,000	$1.98	24d	1	0.35mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $159,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $174,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $199,900 Active
17. 1999-12-27
    soldstatus $45,000
18. 1989-03-01
    soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,148 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,327 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$179/yr (+$15/mo · 15.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,148
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,926
• − Management: −$1,926
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $4,671
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,121
• After-tax cash flow: $5,892/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 5,431
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+851.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1989-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,148 · +13.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.