3468 51st Avenue Dr W · South Bradenton, FL 34210

$229,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,449 sqft · Condo public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1984 $571/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great family home in 5 Lakes, a beautiful park like community. This condo has been well maintained and updated. The first floor features an open plan living/dining area, eating space in the kitchen, sliders off the kitchen to a private deck with lake view. There is also a half bath on the first floor for your convenience. The second floor features three bedrooms with an en suite master bedroom and two other bedrooms with a second bath to share. The washer and dryer are conveniently located on the second floor with all the bedrooms. The community features two pools, one heated. The community also provides access to a gorgeous club house, heated pool, heated spa, tennis courts and more. Come see this great family home today.

Key facts

• Views of the pond
• Open floor plan
• Attractive fireplace

Tags

• VIEWS OF THE POND
• TROPICAL LANDSCAPING
• FRONT ENTRY COURTYARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• ATTRACTIVE FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-654/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (4.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $220k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.1% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bayshore Elementary School (math 51% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 701 students, 72% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.1%/yr); 549 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,691/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 895% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,871 (4.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-48,141
• Equity at exit: $34,219

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-75,221
• Equity at exit: $19,843

Cash invested: $64,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34210

• Rents YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,691 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,204
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,725/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$571
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,760

Max offer price $219,871

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,375
• Closing costs: $6,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3424 51st Avenue Cir W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1538	$2,100	$1.37	3d	1	0.00mi
3441 51st Avenue Cir W Unit 213 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1823	$3,900	$2.14	24d	1	0.05mi
146 Wild Palm Dr #146 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,500	$1.67	24d	1	0.09mi
133 Wild Palm Dr #133 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,350	$1.67	24d	1	0.09mi
132 Wild Palm Dr #132 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$3,400	$2.61	24d	1	0.09mi
3277 51st Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	995	$1,760	$1.77	3d	1	0.11mi
142 Pineneedle Dr Unit 142U Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,395	$1.70	24d	1	0.16mi
184 Pineneedle Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$2,100	$2.23	24d	1	0.16mi
183 Pineneedle Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	0.16mi
206 Lakewood Dr Unit 206 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$2,700	$2.87	24d	1	0.20mi
5125 39th St W Unit 1545695P Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1593	$4,526	$2.84	15d	1	0.21mi
5027 31st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	972	$3,600	$3.70	21d	1	0.26mi
655 Woodlawn Dr Unit 655 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,600	$1.39	24d	1	0.30mi
452 Palm Tree Dr Unit 452 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,595	$1.22	3d	1	0.36mi
5026 Water Oak Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$2,200	$2.29	24d	1	0.37mi
5400 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$2,500	$1.78	24d	3	0.38mi
5400 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1244	$2,675	$2.15	3d	2	0.38mi
577 Lakeside Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1728	$2,000	$1.16	24d	1	0.40mi
586 Lakeside Dr Unit 586 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$3,200	$3.40	24d	1	0.40mi
5062 Live Oak Cir Unit 5026 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,545	$1.72	16d	1	0.41mi
5103 29th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1258	$2,600	$2.07	24d	1	0.44mi
434 Palm Tree Dr #434 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1728	$1,900	$1.10	24d	1	0.44mi
5059 Live Oak Cir Unit 5059 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,900	$2.12	16d	1	0.46mi
3605 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1166	$3,738	$3.21	3d	2	0.46mi
3510 54th Dr W #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1795	$5,000	$2.79	3d	1	0.46mi
3510 54th Dr W #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1795	$5,500	$3.06	3d	1	0.46mi
3401 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1293	$4,500	$3.48	3d	3	0.48mi
3604 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,050	$3.64	3d	3	0.48mi
3701 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1215	$3,500	$2.88	3d	2	0.49mi
2835 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,610	$1.89	3d	16	0.49mi
3506 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,800	$2.94	3d	2	0.50mi
3705 54th Dr W #201 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1650	$5,500	$3.33	16d	1	0.50mi
3705 54th Dr W #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1650	$4,700	$2.85	16d	1	0.50mi
3702 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1327	$4,900	$3.69	3d	2	0.52mi
3803 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1215	$3,600	$2.96	2d	1	0.52mi
303 Springdale Dr #303 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,999	$1.53	3d	1	0.52mi
346 Springdale Dr Unit 346 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,900	$1.46	24d	1	0.53mi
4148 53rd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$3,650	$3.69	2d	1	0.54mi
4148 53rd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	899	$2,412	$2.68	21d	10	0.54mi
4148 53rd Ave W Unit 1210 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,932	$1.80	3d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $571 · $6,852/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   price $229,500
3. 2026-03-11
   listed $249,900 Active
4. 2025-12-15
   historical
5. 2025-05-07
   price $259,900
6. 2025-03-28
   price $279,900
7. 2025-02-19
   listed $299,900 Active
8. 2021-09-14
   soldstatus $237,000
9. 2021-09-13
   soldstatus $237,000 Closed 732-char remark

   Show marketing remark (732 chars)

   Great family home in 5 Lakes, a beautiful park like community. This condo has been well maintained and updated. The first floor features an open plan living/dining area, eating space in the kitchen, sliders off the kitchen to a private deck with lake view. There is also a half bath on the first floor for your convenience. The second floor features three bedrooms with an en suite master bedroom and two other bedrooms with a second bath to share. The washer and dryer are conveniently located on the second floor with all the bedrooms. The community features two pools, one heated. The community also provides access to a gorgeous club house, heated pool, heated spa, tennis courts and more. Come see this great family home today.

10. 2021-08-14
    status Pending 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Great family home in 5 Lakes, a beautiful park like community. This condo has been well maintained and updated. The first floor features an open plan living/dining area, eating space in the kitchen, sliders off the kitchen to a private deck with lake view. There is also a half bath on the first floor for your convenience. The second floor features three bedrooms with an en suite master bedroom and two other bedrooms with a second bath to share. The washer and dryer are conveniently located on the second floor with all the bedrooms. The community features two pools, one heated. The community also provides access to a gorgeous club house, heated pool, heated spa, tennis courts and more. Come see this great family home today.

11. 2021-08-05
    listed $237,000 Active 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Great family home in 5 Lakes, a beautiful park like community. This condo has been well maintained and updated. The first floor features an open plan living/dining area, eating space in the kitchen, sliders off the kitchen to a private deck with lake view. There is also a half bath on the first floor for your convenience. The second floor features three bedrooms with an en suite master bedroom and two other bedrooms with a second bath to share. The washer and dryer are conveniently located on the second floor with all the bedrooms. The community features two pools, one heated. The community also provides access to a gorgeous club house, heated pool, heated spa, tennis courts and more. Come see this great family home today.

12. 2018-12-10
    soldstatus $157,000
13. 2018-12-07
    soldstatus $157,000 Sold
14. 2018-11-02
    status Pending
15. 2018-09-01
    price $167,000
16. 2018-07-12
    listed $170,000 Active
17. 2011-03-21
    historical
18. 2010-04-07
    listed $54,500
19. 2003-09-11
    soldstatus $154,500
20. 1997-05-23
    soldstatus $72,000
21. 1986-06-01
    soldstatus $68,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,725 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,725 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,856
• − Property taxes: −$3,725
• − Insurance: −$1,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,584
• − Management: −$2,584
• − HOA: −$6,852
• − Depreciation: −$6,676
• Taxable loss: −$4,129
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$991
• After-tax cash flow: $337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Bradenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,682
• Household income: $64,244
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 895.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.68%
• Current HPI: 246.9247
• Rent YoY: ▼ -6.08%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+233.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $229,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $259,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-19 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $237,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-13 Sold (MLS) $237,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-05 Listed $237,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $157,000 Public Records
• 2018-12-07 Sold (MLS) $157,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-01 Price Changed $167,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-12 Listed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-07 Listed $54,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $154,500 Public Records
• 1997-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 1986-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $68,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,725 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.