7263 Grace Ln · Mechanicsville, VA 23111

$229,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,695 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1945 9,583 sqft lot $136/sqft · 30% below area Est $331k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 7263 Grace Ln in sought-after Mechanicsville, VA! This charming single-family home offers 1,695 square feet of comfortable living space across two levels, perfect for those seeking a cozy yet functional layout. With 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this property provides ample room to accommodate a variety of needs. Step inside to find hardwood floors that flow seamlessly through much of the home. The home also includes a first floor bonus space currently being utilized as a laundry room off of the kitchen for convenience and could easily offer the option to rework the first floor layout. Outdoors, you’ll find a large detached storage shed, perfect for keeping tools, garden

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Hardwood floors
• 9,583 sq ft lot

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FIRST FLOOR BONUS SPACE
• DETACHED STORAGE SHED
• FULLY FENCED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Brick construction; Composition/shingle roof; Resale property; Zoned R1
• Construction: Brick exterior; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Storage shed; Paved driveway; Chain link full fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Second-level full bath with shower; First-level full bath with tub
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat pump; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in book cases; Bedroom on main level; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.1% in Mechanicsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#165 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hanover County Public School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #5 of 131 in VA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 447 units permitted in Hanover County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hanover County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,469 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.04%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,663
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -30.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7263 Grace Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,695 (0%)	1mo	$255,000	$150	96
7566 Cold Harbor Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-1%)	6mo	$375,000	$223	64
7968 Arnoka Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-3%)	2mo	$385,000	$235	57
8186 Signal Hill Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-14%)	10mo	$355,000	$244	54
7445 Meadow Haven Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,665 (-2%)	10mo	$475,000	$285	52
7367 Pickett Ave	0.37mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,474 (-13%)	8mo	$333,000	$226	48
7360 Ford Ave	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,488 (-12%)	11mo	$369,950	$249	47
8009 Dominion Park Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,734 (+2%)	9mo	$395,000	$228	46
7964 Arnoka Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,826 (+8%)	8mo	$400,000	$219	43
7372 Fullview Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,936 (+14%)	12mo	$396,000	$205	41
7958 Arnoka Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-14%)	2mo	$295,000	$203	36
7119 Kella Way	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,488 (-12%)	11mo	$344,000	$231	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-26,887
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-10,129
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23111

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,105 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,378/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,898

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7283 Barnette Ave Mechanicsville, VA	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,695	$1.06	21d	1	0.18mi
7202 Garden Park Ln Mechanicsville, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	859	$1,635	$1.90	1d	6	0.64mi
8225 Carter Ln Mechanicsville, VA	3.0	2.0	1161	$2,500	$2.15	17d	1	1.19mi
8265 Franklin Ln Mechanicsville, VA	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,900	$1.25	43d	1	1.25mi
7264 Cold Harbor Rd Mechanicsville, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1160	$1,799	$1.55	1d	1	1.33mi
8188 Meadowview Ln Mechanicsville, VA	3.0	1.5	1391	$2,300	$1.65	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 1148-char remark
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $229,900 Active 1148-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,378 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,378 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$2,378
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,021
• − Management: −$2,021
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$1,878
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$451
• After-tax cash flow: $2,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hanover County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101830
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,386
• Composite: 70.37/100
• National rank: #268
• State rank: #5 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mechanicsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #5098

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mechanicsville, VA
• County: Hanover County · 134,767 people
• City population: 72,258
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,070
• Household income: $98,969
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (Hanover County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,687 people
• By 2030: 115,373 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 120,828 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 123,591 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 132,168 · +18.3%
• By 2100: 130,105 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hanover

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 36.6% · R 62.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.8pp toward D · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+26.8 2016: R+32.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.34%
• Current HPI: 253.858
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+10.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Sold (MLS) $255,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $229,900 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,378 · +564.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.