1156B Thornbury Ln · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$295,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,394 sqft · Condo public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1989 $212/sqft · 18% below area Est $360k · 18% under $421/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovingly updated and maintained. SS appliances, new windows and A/C make for worry-free living. Ceiling fans in LR and both bedrooms. There is a patio to enjoy outdoor relaxation. Leisure Village West has two Swimming Pools, three Club Houses, two 9-hole Golf courses, Tennis, Bocci and Pickleball courts. Many clubs and activities will make this the time of your life to have the time of your life!

Key facts

• Two swimming pools
• A/c
• Patio

Tags

• NEW WINDOWS
• A/C
• PATIO
• TWO SWIMMING POOLS
• THREE CLUB HOUSES
• TWO 9-HOLE GOLF COURSES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 662 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $295k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,142
• List price: $295,000
• Delta: -18.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-54,890
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-56,124
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 662
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,935 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$344 /mo · $4,126/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$421
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$616
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,082

Max offer price $274,546

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $-32	+0% $-116	+5% $-199	+10% $-283
Rent	-10% $-348	-5% $-232	+0% $-116	+5% $0	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $33	-0.5pp $-41	base $-116	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	0d	6	0.33mi
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	24d	1	0.60mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	0d	3	0.75mi
616 Lawrence Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1508	$3,100	$2.06	5d	1	1.01mi
19 Marlow Ave Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1551	$2,400	$1.55	0d	1	1.24mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	46d	1	1.27mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	0d	1	1.30mi
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	46d	1	1.31mi
1033 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,700	$2.16	0d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $421 · $5,052/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $295,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $295,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $295,000 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 120 DOM
16. 2026-04-25
    price $299,900 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Lovingly updated and maintained. SS appliances, new windows and A/C make for worry-free living. Ceiling fans in LR and both bedrooms. There is a patio to enjoy outdoor relaxation. Leisure Village West has two Swimming Pools, three Club Houses, two 9-hole Golf courses, Tennis, Bocci and Pickleball courts. Many clubs and activities will make this the time of your life to have the time of your life!

17. 2026-02-01
    listed $305,000 Active 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Lovingly updated and maintained. SS appliances, new windows and A/C make for worry-free living. Ceiling fans in LR and both bedrooms. There is a patio to enjoy outdoor relaxation. Leisure Village West has two Swimming Pools, three Club Houses, two 9-hole Golf courses, Tennis, Bocci and Pickleball courts. Many clubs and activities will make this the time of your life to have the time of your life!

18. 2019-11-06
    soldstatus $165,000
19. 2019-10-28
    soldstatus $165,000 Sold 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Welcome to this immaculate and move in ready Savoy model located in a 55+ adult community. Home features huge master bedroom plus guest bedroom, large living room, dining room, EIK with newer appliances & hardwood floor plus one car garage. New rugs, new tile bathroom floors. Amazing Village Amenities not limited to 2 Nine Hole Executive Golf Courses, 2 Pools(one heated), 3 Lakes, 3 Recreation Halls, Clubs and Courts and much, much more!!! A MUST SEE

20. 2019-09-12
    status Pending 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Welcome to this immaculate and move in ready Savoy model located in a 55+ adult community. Home features huge master bedroom plus guest bedroom, large living room, dining room, EIK with newer appliances & hardwood floor plus one car garage. New rugs, new tile bathroom floors. Amazing Village Amenities not limited to 2 Nine Hole Executive Golf Courses, 2 Pools(one heated), 3 Lakes, 3 Recreation Halls, Clubs and Courts and much, much more!!! A MUST SEE

21. 2019-09-06
    listed $169,900 Active 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Welcome to this immaculate and move in ready Savoy model located in a 55+ adult community. Home features huge master bedroom plus guest bedroom, large living room, dining room, EIK with newer appliances & hardwood floor plus one car garage. New rugs, new tile bathroom floors. Amazing Village Amenities not limited to 2 Nine Hole Executive Golf Courses, 2 Pools(one heated), 3 Lakes, 3 Recreation Halls, Clubs and Courts and much, much more!!! A MUST SEE

22. 2017-08-08
    soldstatus $152,500
23. 2017-08-03
    soldstatus $152,500 Sold
24. 2017-06-26
    status Pending
25. 2017-06-07
    price $145,000
26. 2017-05-11
    listed $149,900 Active
27. 2013-01-25
    soldstatus $100,000
28. 1992-12-02
    soldstatus $114,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,126 · $344/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,736 · $478/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,610/yr (+$134/mo · 39.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,126
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,818
• − Management: −$2,818
• − HOA: −$5,052
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$6,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,481
• After-tax cash flow: $91/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+160.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $299,900 MOMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $305,000 MOMLS
• 2019-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-28 Sold (MLS) $165,000 MOMLS
• 2019-09-12 Pending — MOMLS
• 2019-09-06 Listed $169,900 MOMLS
• 2017-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $152,500 Public Records
• 2017-08-03 Sold (MLS) $152,500 MOMLS
• 2017-06-26 Pending — MOMLS
• 2017-06-07 Price Changed $145,000 MOMLS
• 2017-05-11 Listed $149,900 MOMLS
• 2013-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1992-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $114,990 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,126 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.